This article comes from CryptoSlate, the original author: Ali Martinez
The most anticipated event of the cryptocurrency industry in 2020-the halving of Bitcoin block rewards has already occurred. After AntPool (Ant Pool) successfully dug the 630,000th block, Bitcoin experienced a third halving.
Now, the bitcoin issuance rate has dropped by 50%. In the next four years, miner rewards have dropped from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, and this may have a significant impact on the entire network.
Miners flee the Bitcoin network to avoid losses
Charles Edwards, Crypto asset manager at Capriole Investments, said that the huge supply reduction shock experienced by Bitcoin was the “most cruel” in its short history. The analyst insists that the production cost of miners will double to US $ 14,000, which is more than 60% higher than the current price level.
Edwards expects that miners will surrender soon, and then will push down the price of BTC.
Edwards said: “In the last halving, the price was only 10% lower than the cost of production. At that time, the price and computing power plummeted by 20%. If there is no” FOMO “sentiment, more than 30% of the miners will surrender . ”
In fact, Matt D’Souza, CEO of Blockware Solutions, explained that after the recent halving, it will bring “healthy purification of the network.” As the previous generation of mining machines S9, Xindong and Jianan will no longer be profitable, all mining pools will be forced to deploy more efficient mining machines in the coming months.
This is why a large number of mining pools choose to close because they are already losing money. Alejandro De La Torre, Vice President of Poolin, confirmed that unprofitable miners account for 15% to 30% of the entire Bitcoin hashrate.
De La Torre added: “Unless almost free electricity is used for mining, or the price of BTC rises 2 times or more, all old miners will no longer be profitable.”
Price impact after halving
It seems to be speculative to push up prices by 200% to maintain the survival of miners. But for Decred project director Jake Yocom-Piatt, this is very likely to happen because these key industry players will maintain the same revenue at all costs.
Yocom-Piatt said: “The cost of miners is actually fixed, so in order to maintain the same profit margin, they will be prompted to double the price when selling bitcoin. I expect that the halving of supply The shock will significantly increase the price of miners, which in turn will increase the price of Bitcoin. ”
Given the current turbulent state of the global economy, it is unclear whether the recent halving will be a catalyst for the next round of the Bitcoin bull market. However, if it is indeed as PlanB’s S2F model shows-scarcity will push up prices, then the market value of Bitcoin may soon increase by a factor of 10.
Note: PlanB, a cryptocurrency analyst, believes that according to the S2F (Stock to Flow) model, every time Bitcoin is halved, its “Stock to Flow” will double, and its expected market value will also increase by a factor of 10. PlanB once said: “According to this model, the market value of Bitcoin is expected to reach 1 trillion US dollars after halving in May 2020, when the price of Bitcoin will reach 55,000 US dollars.”
The S2F model of gold indicates that the inflation rate of gold is around 2%. After halving, Bitcoin’s inflation rate will drop to nearly 1.66%. In addition, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio will be higher than gold after halving. Currently, the S2F ratio of gold is the highest among all commodities. If it continues to be regarded as a safe haven or Crypto gold, then Bitcoin is expected to usher in a bull market.