These Metrics Predict a Bitcoin Bull Run

Key facts:

  • The value relationship retained by short- and long-term holders points to the BTC Fund.

  • BTC savers lost close to 50%, a figure that correlates to the lowest price.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) intensified its downward trajectory in November, hitting lowest values ​​not seen two years ago. However, the pattern of price development observed by some traders and analysts may indicate an imminent price recovery.

The analysis by @TATrader_Alan highlights that the evolution of Bitcoin price is very similar to the price action in late 2015, just before the start of the 2016-2017 bull market.

One of the similarities to the current situation is the MACD indicator, which measures the convergence and divergence of two exponential moving averages (blue on the chart). When this indicator turns positive, it coincides with the formation of a price bottom.

Bitcoin MACD indicator

When the MACD indicator turns positive, a BTC price floor can be formed. Source: @TATrader_Alan on Twitter.

The second similarity is that BTC is in a support zone defined by the wick of the previous high candle.

Savers’ Losses and Gains

Another metric proposed by user CoinLupin on the CryptoQuant platform is based on the percentage change in losses and gains for BTC savers. During an economic downturn, the percentage of loss savers increases while the percentage of profit savers falls.

Curve chart to determine BTC price

The intersection of the two curves should coincide with the price bottom. Source: CoinLupin on CryptoQuant.

According to historical data, when the loss ratio of depositors exceeds 50%, it coincides with the establishment of the fund. At present, the two curves have not yet crossed, but judging from the trend, the two curves are close to crossing.

BTC holding span

The so-called RHOLD indicator works with BTC’s lifetime through realized value. It has historically been accurate in predicting price lows and all-time highs.

Plot using RHODL minimum

RHOLD lows usually signal a price bottom. Source: @el_crypto_prof on Twitter.

In the chart, provided by the analyst beard On Twitter, RHOLD can be seen entering the green zone that has historically coincided with BTC price lows.

However, while the coincidence of historical facts suggests that a bottom has been formed for the price of Bitcoin, there is no absolute certainty that this will happen.

Source of information: Compiled from CRYPTONOTICIAS by 0x Information, the copyright belongs to the author, and shall not be reproduced without permission

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