The most critical two weeks, four days to set the tone for the fourth quarter market, if you don’t do it, it will be New Year’s Eve!

1 Market focus

The most critical two weeks are coming. In addition to the third quarter earnings report, more uncertain factors will determine the future trend of the market in the fourth quarter.

In any case, increased volatility in the market is inevitable. When others are fearful, they should be greedy, and only when the market fluctuates can they make big gains.

(1) November 3: The Fed announced its November interest rate resolution. The resolution did not announce a dot plot. Half an hour after the resolution was announced, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference to give hints on the future policy direction. The focus of this meeting is also the focus of uncertainty: first, whether Powell’s speech will “release pigeons” or continue to “release eagles”; second, whether the meeting will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in consideration of economic recession and other factors, which will Directly adjust the market trend.

At present, the market has a 46.9% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December, and the bet strength has exceeded 44.3% of 75 basis points.

(2) November 4: The US non-farm payrolls data for October is announced, and the information on the job market directly affects the Fed’s interest rate policy in December.

(3) November 8: The US midterm elections may usher in a congressional change. The latest survey shows that 79% of respondents believe that the situation in the United States is “out of control”, and for President Biden, 56% of respondents disapprove of the work he has done as president.

(4) November 10: The US consumer price index (CPI) for October will be announced, which will play a key role in the expectations of the Fed’s policy direction and the trend in the fourth quarter.

2 Industry Focus

(1) ENS: Domain name registrations hit an all-time high in Q3 2022, and renewals tripled from Q2. In the third quarter, revenue from 3-4 digit domain names declined, with domain registrations primarily attributable to an 8% increase in domain names with 5 characters or more.

Suggestion: buy on dips in the medium and long-term, do it for a while, and keep doing it all the time.

(2) On-chain data shows that the number of Bitcoin millionaires will decrease by 70.23% in the first three quarters of 2022. At the end of the third quarter, 25,395 different addresses had Bitcoin balances over $1 million, and another 4,102 addresses had a combined Bitcoin balance of about $10 million or more.

Investing is not a game. Only earning numbers and not making money is the fundamental reason why more people lose bronze. Only by learning to cash in or leave the market can you become the king of capital management.

(3) Panic and Greed Index:

On October 31, it was 31 (it was 34 yesterday), and the level of panic has increased, and the level is panic. The panic index fluctuates obviously synchronously with the market, indicating that in the current market, more investors are speculators.

3 Market solution

(1) BTC:

The data on the chain shows that the chips are still scattered, the structure of token holders is slowly changing, and it still takes a long time for the bull to return, and the current trend is more to follow the US stock market.

Operational suggestions: During the US session, the fundamentals are focused on predicting the direction of operation, and the Asian session is focused on predicting through technical aspects.

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart

(2) Ethereum:

The Ethereum Foundation launched the 2022 Layer 2 Community Giving Program, starting on October 24, 2022, for a period of 6 weeks, with a total grant of $750,000.

The real return for Ethereum validators has soared from nearly 0% to 6%. More funds flow into staking contracts. The pledge rate of the entire network was 12.21%, and exchanges accounted for 10.61%, up 0.13% month-on-month; DeFi projects accounted for 17.79%, up 0.03% month-on-month; large addresses accounted for 38.79%, down 0.02% month-on-month; other addresses accounted for 32.84%, It decreased by 0.12% month-on-month.

Since September 11, Ethereum whales (addresses holding at least 1 million ETH) have increased their holdings of more than 3.5 million ETHs, and the ETH holdings of the giant whales have increased by 14% after the merger. Currently, about 132 Ethereum whale wallets have combined holdings, an all-time high.

Suggestion 1: ETH has become the mainstream currency in the trend of altcoins, and the volatility has increased. The spot can be bought on dips, and the leverage of the contract should be reduced, otherwise the risk of liquidation will be high.

Recommendation 2: The L2 sector, as a necessary sector to increase throughput and reduce gas fees after the merger of Ethereum, can be used as a medium-to-long-term target for long-term short-term trading.

(3) Fan Coin: On the hot search again, it entered the list of rising dragons and tigers.

The 2022 World Cup will open on November 20 and close on December 18. During the World Cup, there will still be opportunities in the fan currency section, which can be operated repeatedly, but it is not advisable to expect too much.

(4) SAND: The company has posted 103 job postings. The Sandbox’s headcount has grown to 404 in 2022, nearly double the 208 headcount in December 2021.

Suggestion: Under the current situation that more large and small technology companies are laying off staff, a large number of talents are flocking to early Web3 companies, and companies that continue to recruit are obviously expanding their business and can invest in the medium and long term.

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