1. Macro liquidity
Currency liquidity has tightened. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a hawkish speech, saying that the peak interest rate may be higher than expected, and if necessary, the rate hike will be accelerated. The economic data before the March interest rate meeting remained strong, and the market expected the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March to 70% from 30%, and raised interest rate peak expectations by 25 basis points. But in the long run, the monthly level of the US stock Nasdaq index will rise, while the monthly level of the U.S. dollar index will fall.
2. The whole market
The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
The market has been sharply lower this week, with BTC dominance rising. The United States has strengthened supervision, and market hotspots have been turned off.
KAVA: It is the EVM public chain of the Cosmos ecology, and the ecological fund has just been established. Equilibre Finance, a new mine with funds to invest in the ve33 model, has a high mining yield.
PENDLE: It is an interest rate derivatives agreement. It has just been expanded to the Arbitrum chain. Assets can be purchased at a certain discount, but there is a lock-up period.
ACS: Korean funding hype for content monetization agreement. Access is the Solana chain ecology. It was launched on Coinbase in February and can be used to pay for subscription creator content such as The Block, Coingecko, etc.
3. BTC market
3.1 Data on the chain
The structure of BTC holders is similar to the level at the end of the last bear market. After the recent market rebound, the profit ratio of investors holding BTC within half a year has risen rapidly from 2.5% in the bear market to 15%, which is very similar to the recovery pattern at the low point of the bear market in 2018-2019. The market structure is still in transition from a bear market to a bull market.
Market funds were flat. The market as a whole is still in the stage of capital stock game. Due to the strengthening of regulation on stablecoins in the United States, the market value of BUSD continued to decline. Binance seeks alternatives to other stablecoins, and the reserve ratio of TUSD on the Binance exchange has increased to 1.7%.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1, and holders are generally in the red. The current indicator is 0.14, out of the green bottom-buying range.
3.2 Futures Quotes
Futures funding rate: The rate this week is positive and at a normal level. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures open interest: The total open interest decreased this week, and some main market forces retreated.
Futures long-short ratio: 2.4. The sentiment of retail investors is relatively high, and the sentiment of retail investors is mostly a reverse indicator. Above 1.7-2.0 is more dangerous. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance has been weakened.
3.3 Spot Market
BTC fluctuated and fell this week. The market is facing new uncertainties due to the expectation of US interest rate hikes, but the long-term weekly rebound trend has not been destroyed. The next CPI on March 14 and the interest rate hike on March 22 will be the focus of the market. Regardless of whether the bearish boots are on the ground or it is expected to digest the negative, the BTC around 20,000 is a long-term good opportunity to build a position.
Market data: 1. The total lock-up volume of the public chain 2. TVL ratio of each public chain
This week, the TVL dropped by 4.7b due to the influence of various factors. Both ethereum and layer2 public chains have basically been affected by the market and began to fall. In the layer2 public chain, arbitrum, optimism, and avalanche all fell by more than 10%. In addition, KAVA rose 35% within 7 days.
3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol
3.1 ETH lock-up volume3.2 BSC lock-up volume3.3 Tron lock-up volume3.4 Avalanche lock-up volume3.5 Polygon Lockup Amount3.6 Arbitrum lock-up volume3.7 Optimism lock-up volume4. History of ETH Gas fee
The current on-chain transfer fee is about $0.83, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $7.59, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $2.95, which is basically the same as the same period last week. The market activity has not yet reversed and is in the bottom range. Blur is still a big gas consumer, maintaining the number one position last week.
5. Changes in NFT market data
5.1 Market value of NFT index:5.2 Overview of NFT market transactions:5.3 NFT market transactions:5.4 NFT Market Buyer Analysis:
In the past two weeks, it can be seen that the popularity of Blur has remained at a stable level, and its market share has remained at around 40%. This week, the number of NFT buyers has rebounded significantly, and first time buyers have increased significantly. Among the blue-chip projects, the floor price of BAYC fell by 5.69% on the 7th, and that of MAYC fell by 4.52%.
6. The latest financing status of the project