According to a report by Decrypto on May 13, Bitcoin research company Delphi Digital released a new “Bitcoin Status” report. After bitcoin halved, this report revealed some key data points driving the bitcoin market and on-chain activities, noting that the so-called “ultimate Hodler” did not sell its own bitcoin, and the number of retail investors is also increasing.
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In the process of responding to the new coronavirus epidemic, governments around the world have reacted unprecedentedly, “at any cost” to maintain their own economic operations, which may promote the adoption of Bitcoin.
This is the main point of Delphi Digital’s latest report. This report provides a detailed analysis of the macro-financial environment and data on the bitcoin chain, combined with historical halving events and bitcoin’s current data trends, and predicted the trend of bitcoin for the rest of the year.
The report began with a solemn reminder that the world economy is basically maintained by debt. It wrote:
“Central banks around the world pledged to provide more than 10 trillion dollars in monetary and financial assistance in 2020.”
While the governments of various countries are printing large amounts of banknotes, Bitcoin’s inflation rate will continue to decline, as evidenced by the successful halving on May 12th.
Good for Bitcoin?
Delphi Digital said that halving will benefit Bitcoin for a long time, but it will take some time to see the effect. The team concluded from the limited data they have held since the birth of Bitcoin 11 years ago: It is worth noting that, historically, when the growth of the assets of major central banks began to slow down, the bitcoin cycle that started first tended to peak.
Delphi continued to assess the risk of currency devaluation to the poor and pointed out that Bitcoin’s performance has been better than the currencies of countries in crisis. For example, Bitcoin rose 44% against the Russian ruble, 74% against the Brazilian real, and 52% against the Mexican peso. The report writes:
“We expect that as the risk of widespread currency depreciation increases, the demand for non-sovereign ‘safe-haven’ assets will rise substantially.”
Deplhi added that bitcoin’s market value is expected to grow, while gold will also have a place like bitcoin.
When analyzing some of the data on the chain, perhaps the logic of Bitcoin’s market value growth is more straightforward. In the past five years, the number of addresses holding less than 1 BTC has shown an upward trend, while the number of addresses holding large amounts of BTC has shown a downward trend. This is usually considered a sign of growing retail investors. However, it should be noted that a privacy-conscious user may have multiple Bitcoin addresses.
In addition, after the plunge in bitcoin prices in March, the recent rally was mainly driven by the spot market, which is usually composed of retail investors with less capital. But in January, the rise before the “Black Thursday” plunge was mainly driven by institutional investors.
Delphi Digita) co-founder Yan Liberman said in an interview with Decrypt:
“This level of spot trading volume has not really appeared since last summer; although it is difficult to attribute it exactly to whom, I am absolutely bullish.”
According to the report, with the surge in the retail transaction volume of Bitcoin, the number of Bitcoins held by the exchange is decreasing, and there has been an “unprecedented outflow of funds.”
Bitcoin Ultimate Hodler
At the end of the report, Delphi affirmed the previous halving and compared the current “holder base” with the data from Bitcoin’s second halving four years ago.
The report points out that the current composition of the currency holder base looks almost the same as before the second halving. The report added that at present, the proportion of holders who have not transferred bitcoin for at least one or three years has only fallen by a few percentage points compared with the 2016 figure.
Delphi wrote in the report, “22% of the holders have not moved bitcoin in five years and 7.7% of the holders have not moved in ten years.” In addition to these findings, Liberman also told Decrypto, “These holdings The people basically represent the part of the base that is held for a long time, and they are not very concerned about short-term price trends. ”
In other words, as Bitcoin’s “ultimate Hodler”, these hardcore Bitcoiners are building a cornerstone to support the network. At the very least, as Delphi wrote on Twitter when the report was published, the data shows: “It is no longer a wise choice to give up holding Bitcoin.”