There is an old man who plans to rent out the house upstairs, the only condition is not to make noise. At that time, the single boys who lived in were quite abiding by the rules. But soon after, the young man fell in love and often returned late. Because of excitement, he took off his leather shoes before going to bed, and they must be thrown heavily on the ground. The old man was not at peace, so he negotiated with him. That day, the young man returned late again. After throwing off one shoe, he suddenly remembered what the old man said, so he carefully put down the other shoe. The next morning, the old man came to the door and was furious: “You leave immediately! It turns out that it’s okay, you can still sleep after you throw away your shoes. I didn’t sleep last night, and I waited for your second shoe to fall off. .”
I am not afraid of anything, not afraid of losing money, but I am afraid of uncertainty. – Soros
1 Market focus
On the closing day of October, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively, and the market returned to caution ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Technology stocks continued to suffer from poor financial reports, causing the Nasdaq to fall by more than 1%, leading the three major indexes to fall. BTC fell 0.66%, with an amplitude of nearly 3%.
However, the “Silver Ten” still performed strongly on the whole. The Dow rose 14%, the S&P 500 rose 8%, the Nasdaq rose 3.9%, and the weak chicken BTC also rose 5.5%.
The Dow outperforming the Nasdaq in October is similar to when the dotcom bubble burst in 2000. The Dow rarely outperformed the Nasdaq by more than 10 percentage points, the largest margin since February 2002, when the gap between the two exceeded 12 percentage points. The Dow posted its best month since January 1976, a sign that investors are betting on traditional sectors of the economy such as banks outperforming technology growth stocks.
As the Fed’s tightening continues, technology stocks have suffered heavy losses amid recession fears and soaring interest rates, while third-quarter earnings reports have hit market confidence. The Nasdaq’s sharp underperformance of the Dow may continue, and the crypto market will not exception.
(1) Whether this round of rebound can rebound will wait until after 2 am on Thursday (November 3).
The most likely scenario for the interest rate decision in November, which one do you think has the greatest probability?
A 50bps rate hike + hawkish press conference: The S&P 500 could gain 4% to 5% based on the Fed’s expectations of financial stability, balancing growth and inflation.
B 75bps + dovish press conference: The S&P 500 could gain 2.5% to 3% based on expectations of a slowdown in the pace of the Fed’s December meeting with a focus on recession.
C rate hike by 75 basis points + hawkish press conference: Based on the Fed’s concern about bond market stability, to avoid large fluctuations in bond yields and the expectation that the stock market will plummet, it will also emphasize the current risk of higher inflation, and retain the December and 2023 meetings. With options, the S&P 500 will perform between a 1% loss and a 0.5% gain.
D 100 basis points of interest rate hike + dovish press conference: Based on the Fed’s prior knowledge of next week’s CPI data, which is too optimistic than the Fed’s forecast, it is expected to be forced to aggressively raise interest rates to raise the final interest rate, and US stocks may plummet.
Historical performance of US stocks on the day of the meeting: In the previous six meetings, the S&P 500 rose 4 times and fell 2 times on the day of the Fed meeting.
(2) The CME interest rate monitoring tool shows that after the Fed interest rate meeting on Wednesday (November 2), the probability of announcing a 75 basis point rate hike is 85%, and the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in December is 49%.
(3) A reporter known as the “New Federal Reserve News Agency” tweeted with an attitude of 180, reversing the previous dovish view. In an effort to cool inflation, the Fed’s final rate may be higher than expected, and higher rates will persist for longer, the paper said on Sunday. The tweet hinted that U.S. consumers’ savings levels remain strong, and that this cash glut could mean higher interest rates for longer.
(4) Musk has become the sole director of Twitter, and the new move is drastic.
It is planned to cut 15-30% of staff in various departments.
To address account bots and cyber provocateurs, the subscription price for Twitter Blue has been raised from the current $4.99/month to $19.99/month.
Short video app Vine may be relaunched by the end of the year.
Micro-cryptopayments are likely to follow.
2 Industry Focus
(1) DODO: Mike B, head of Balancer DAO technology, tweeted that there were some serious sandwich attacks in the USDT/DAI liquidity pool of the decentralized trading platform DODO (front and back pincers, preemptive transactions, increased trader costs, earned Take the difference), the liquidity of the pool is less than 10 million US dollars, but the daily trading volume is as high as 50 million to 100 million US dollars, and when users load DODO in a new browser, the default slippage is 3%, not a more suitable 0.1%.
Suggestion: risk control first, no matter true or false, avoid it.
(2) Musk posted a smiley face on Twitter, with a picture of a Shiba Inu wearing Twitter Logo clothes. DOGE rose by more than 16% in 24 hours, breaking through 0.14 USDT.
Suggestion: It is not advisable to chase up, but to buy in batches on dips in the medium and long term.
(3) Binance announced the launch of the 31st new coin mining project Hashflow (HFT).
At 08:00 on November 01, 2022 (East Eighth District time), put BNB and BUSD into the HFT mining pool to get HFT rewards. HFT can be mined for a total of 30 days.
Binance will list HFT at 21:00 on November 07, 2022 (East 8th district time).
HFT: A decentralized trading platform that links users and professional market makers.
Suggestion: There are conditions and opportunities to participate in such things as wool, especially in the bear market.
(4) Panic and Greed Index:
It was 30 on November 1 (31 yesterday), and the level of panic has increased, and the level is panic. The transaction was light, the volatility was low, and it was a wait-and-see state.
3 Market solution
(1) BTC:
Derivatives Risk Assessment:
The oscillating indicator (blue line) of the proportion of long and short liquidation is located in the extreme value area of the stage, indicating that the risk of derivatives is relatively high, and the risk of long positions is higher.
Derivatives have a negative rate of change (red volume chart), indicating more shorts betting. In the absence of external factors, if either party bets too much, its profit margin may be reduced, and the market fluctuations are small, requiring more time to pull.
Market forecast: It fluctuated within a narrow range of 250 points throughout the day, and the global market was waiting for the Fed’s decision on interest rates. In the past two days, it has been mainly consolidation.
BTC 1 hour candlestick chart
(2) Ethereum:
The performance of ETH new forces: In this round of rebound, the new forces have decreased significantly, indicating that the new forces in the last round of rebound are more likely to be the addresses of projects such as the Ethereum POW fork. Quotes.
ETH 4-hour candlestick chart:
(3) ATOM:
The Cosmos Hub revised white paper has opened on-chain voting, and the voting deadline is November 14th. The governance proposal for this vote aims to use ATOM as the preferred collateral within the Cosmos network, while promoting the transition to the next stage of the Cosmos Hub as an infrastructure services platform.
Suggestion: Cosmos ecology is booming, buy on dips in the medium and long term, and short in the long term.
ATOM daily candlestick chart:
(4) OSMO:
The new currency OSMO will be listed on the Binance Innovation Zone OSMO on October 28).
According to community news, a day before Binance announced the launch of OSMO, a mysterious whale bought 2,029,846 OSMOs in 11 transactions on the 27th at an average price of about $1.34, which sparked discussions in the community about the “rat warehouse”.
Binance publishes findings on insider trading of OSMO spread by the community: OSMO was bought in bulk about 1 day before listing, and all tokens were quickly traded as ATOM before announcing that OSMO would be listed on Binance. The transaction is USDC to OSMO to ATOM, so it is judged to be a legal transaction, not an insider transaction.
The giant whale still holds part of the OSMO
OSMO: belongs to the Layer 1 Proof of Stake (PoS) blockchain, an ecological project of Cosmos (ATOM), which enables developers to design and deploy customized AMMs by using its various modules and leveraging OOMO’s on-chain governance system ( automatic market maker).
Suggestion: ATOM’s ecological projects can be intervened with small funds and dips.
OSMO 1 hour candlestick chart