Prospect and risk analysis of NFT game

Hi everyone, I’m Peipei. Recently, the NFT game talks very much about Doha. It is indeed a hot spot that is difficult to avoid under other conditions of weakness. Recently, some friends are paying attention to this area, so today I will talk about it as a whole. s things.

In the past 24 hours, most of the NFT concept and game categories have a 10-20 point drop:


It should be said that some funds were chasing this piece before, and the decline is also a normal manifestation of short-term overheating. As for whether it will collapse, especially for games like axie, it seems that it is still difficult to draw conclusions. The current game cost, transaction volume and Relative to history, the popularity is still at a high level.

For NFT games, I think it is easy to generate bubbles. All bubbles will collapse. In the field of games, I have observed or experienced some bubble bursting projects before. The collapse may be more scary than ordinary cottages. .

However, for each game, bubble collapse is normal. The key is whether to get out of the trough. This should also be a division of the pros and cons of the projects in the NFT section. The high-quality ones can survive the cycle for a long time, and the bad ones will pass. Often disappeared.

So our goal in this field is also to try our best to find games that can go on for a long time.

Regarding the prospects of NFT games, including the most recently discussed concept-Metaverse, I am still more optimistic. I would think that they can go to the next cycle of encryption, and it may even be true that the explosion is still behind. After all, there are only a few typical projects that the public can name.

Although there may be some overheating FOMO in the short term, we are still optimistic about the long-term reasons:

1. NFT game features make it an area where bubbles are easy to create

Speculative bubbles are actually neutral. Where bubbles generate heat, attract capital, bring more demand, and promote the development of related technologies, whether in the real or virtual world, it is like the gold rush in the West. There are more than ten years of development in the encryption industry.

In the game, different props are bound to the NFT token, not only can freely trade and circulate, but now there are many gameplay methods such as synthesis, pledge, and destruction. There are many varieties in the game, which have different meanings, different scarcity, and pricing. The difference is also very big, and the scarce or immediate demand items are prone to rapidly increase the premium.

For game coins, compared to most altcoins, it is easier to design some destruction scenarios, and it is easier to generate destruction requirements. Like the potion SLP in Axie, each breeding requires a certain amount of SLP consumption. When users grow, it is more difficult to reproduce. The increase in demand for SLP and the increase in the consumption of SLP are also an aspect that easily promotes the formation of bubbles, because more tokens are used for consumption or mortgage.

On the other hand, for games in the crypto field, the holders of the assets and tokens are not necessarily players. For example, there are several big whale accounts on the wax chain. If you see interesting projects, you will buy them. Buy, there are also many game coins that Hold is optimistic about, which will also reduce circulation and generate a premium when demand increases.

2. NFT games are a place that depends on the number of users

Why do many games see short-term doubling growth? For example, not only Axie but also BSC have also become popular recently. A big factor is that the original base of the game is too small, like Axie two months ago. With just a few thousand people, the daily activity has doubled, and the increase in the demand for tokens may have been exaggerated, let alone the current increase of nearly ten times.


All the chain travels on dappradar can be ranked at 10,000+ daily, and there are only a few that have to go out to top ads. So in the long term, this potential space is still very large. Even the hottest Axie currently, we may not be sure that its growth will come to an end now, because compared to the entire encryption, the game is still a small area.

However, although we are optimistic about the potential here, we also need to talk about the current “pits” in this field:

1. Receiving game or bubble economy

Many people don’t know the difference between Pond’s and bubble. Pond’s must have “new” to pick up the “old”. It is basically a one-off. Once it collapses, it will be played. The bubble has a cycle. When entering the trough, another bubble may be brewing again.

They are really not easy to divide, because whether it is a Pond’s or a bubble, there will be a similar appearance that when fresh increments flood in, the system will become prosperous.

When choosing a game project, you can observe its internal mechanism more, where the profit comes from, and try to stay away from the project where the profit only comes from the acceptance, unless you have a good time and it can continue to develop.

I would think that a better project should really be in line with the meta-universal concept. It has something similar to the real-world economic cycle, such as axie. Although his family has some designs such as consumption and limited reproduction times, I think it is possible. It is still a bit biased towards the mode of receiving the market, that is, more growth is driven by the number of users. Of course, this is only a temporary observation, and the project will also grow and change.

2. The pit of reinvestment

Just like in the real world, some businesses seem to be very profitable, with daily income, but in the end the boss didn’t make much money. The main reason is that it requires you to keep investing, or even increasing investment, such as factories. In order to increase productivity, continue to expand factories, increase manpower and increase wages.

The game feels that this is also the case now. Some projects will be updated from time to time to give an incentive or attract users to invest. Maybe a certain period in the middle seems to be very profitable, but if the price drops.

If you want to play to earn instead of just having fun, you may need to be aware of asset management instead of just looking at ROI.

3. Decentralized Or Centralized

In the NFT field, I prefer to concentrate, that is, the project selection is at least focusing on a few targets in the same time period, instead of blindly playing when one or the other is hot in the market. There are many games in this area and it is quite energy-consuming. Like axie, it takes about 1 hour a day. In addition to playing, we must also pay attention to project dynamics or community gameplay discussions.

So I think we still have to make some choices in this area. One is to see whether the model mechanism is appropriate. Whether the popularity is not necessarily the first thing. In many cases, the hottest time is also the easiest time to take over. In addition, it must be in line with personal preferences and earn money. Play to make money, there is still something to play.

Concluding remarks

Let’s do this for the time being today, hoping to be helpful to those who are just starting to pay attention to NFT games and who don’t know much about the market.

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