There are still about five hours (2:30 am Beijing time), and Bitcoin will usher in a halving every four years. After this halving, the annualized inflation rate will drop to about 1.7%.
Many people predict that after the halving, the price of Bitcoin will plummet, which will lead to the death spiral of the mining industry. Will you insist on seeing the moment of halving?
On the afternoon of May 11th, the Odaily Planet Daily hosted the “Watching Bitcoin Performance” AMA with the theme of halving bitcoin, and invited OKEx Chief Strategy Officer Xu Kun, Binxin Mining CEO Liu Fei, PayPal Financial Goku and coin. Uncle CMO participated in the discussion, and the guests made a hard-core analysis and discussion on the short-term and long-term trends of the currency price after the halving, and the impact of the halving on the miners ’mines and the lending industry.
The following is a summary of the essence of OKEx chief strategy officer Xu Kun, enjoy:
Bitcoin is expected to rise to 20,000 US dollars this year
Odaily Planet Daily: The first question, I still want to invite guests to talk about the [currency price] issue that everyone is most concerned about. This time the decline is that the bearishness after the halving has been consumed in advance, and the rally will restart afterwards; ‘S main heavyweight pull is just a sham shot, we will not see the broken Bitcoin for a long time?
Xu Kun: Analyzing from the logic of price, the market fluctuated up and down after “3.12”, many people’s chips were scattered, the main chips became very concentrated, and a wave of rapid pre-holiday rises, driving the market sentiment to become active. But overall there is no heaviness, indicating that many people are still hesitating to wait and see. At the point of halving, the price will still fluctuate repeatedly, but there should be no extreme cases.
Short-term prices may deviate from value, but in the long run, prices always fluctuate around value. Looking at the long period, I personally firmly look at multi-bitcoin, one is based on fundamentals, and the other is based on time precipitation. The volume of crypto assets is small, and the effect of loose overall liquidity in this market will be faster and more obvious. Institutions are paying more and more attention to Bitcoin, and their attitudes are becoming more and more positive. Compared with other large types of assets, crypto assets are in a relatively cycle There are more advantages in the country, and it is worth looking forward to the second half of the year. I personally judge that bitcoin is expected to rise to $ 20,000 in the year.
The trend of institutions entering the market is determined
Odaily Planet Daily: Many people have also analyzed that this bitcoin pull is different from the previous leveraged bull, and it is caused by the madness of overseas institutions. When bitcoin surged, there was a spot premium on overseas exchanges, and even a large number of thousands of coins.
Recently, not only Bloomberg milk bitcoin, but also GBTC of Gray Trust has added a total of 389 million US dollars of new investment, which is equivalent to investors buying about 60,000 bitcoins through GBTC. The US pension fund has also issued news of configuring bitcoin.
What do you think of Bitcoin’s “washing” and the entry of overseas institutions? Is this good for retail investors?
Recently, many news of overseas travel revealed that overseas institutions are entering Bitcoin. Not only Bloomberg milk Bitcoin, but also GBTC Trust ’s GBTC increased a total of US $ 389 million in new investment, which is equivalent to investors buying about 60,000 Bitcoins through GBTC. The pension fund has also sent out news of configuring Bitcoin. So, is the admission of overseas institutions a good thing for the currency circle and retail investors?
Xu Kun: The trend of institutions entering the market is certain, especially the changes in the macro environment this year. Global risk assets are entering repricing, and emerging assets will usher in opportunities. Bitcoin was born in the context of the last round of economic crisis, and has both investment value and application value. A stable ecological foundation has been formed in the past ten years. Richer derivatives also bring more diversified investment strategies. In the long run, Bitcoin Alpha will gradually emerge, attracting more capital inflows.
Institutional admission drives the rapid expansion of the market boundary, which is a good thing for the long-term development of the industry, but challenges and opportunities are always accompanied. Senior players enter the market, and now practitioners and traders will face more professionalism. The competition and market structure will also undergo a major reshuffle.
The stablecoin market will inevitably undergo a major reshuffle in the next cycle
Odaily Planet Daily: After the “3.12” plunge, USDT has always had a premium, but in the first two days, USDT has seen a “negative premium” that has not been seen for a long time. Some big accounts say that smart traders are selling BTC in exchange for USDT, and some people think that TEDA is also the main force of the pull. The additional USDT is just for hoarding limited BTC with unlimited USDT. I do n’t know what you think? In the short term, will the “crazy” of USDT really have any effect?
Xu Kun: First of all, the market’s demand for stablecoins is real. Stablecoins undertake the functions of funds in and out, as well as mainstream currency trading media, but there is still a big gap between the overall volume and the volume of mainstream coins. So once there is a relatively large in and out, the stablecoin will have a large premium. These days USDT has experienced a negative premium.
However, a stablecoin with extremely centralized and poor transparency, such as USDT, occupies a monopolistic position, which is always a significant hidden danger for the market.
However, due to the advantages of USDT after the bull and bear precipitation, the linkage in the entire market is also very strong, and it is not quick to solve this hidden danger. Other compliant stablecoins now need to polish products, expand channels, and seize new opportunities. The stablecoin market will inevitably undergo a major reshuffle in the next cycle. You can pay more attention to compliant stablecoins, such as USDK .
Long-term bullish on Ethereum
Odaily Planet Daily: This time when Bitcoin pulled, mainstream currencies started embarrassing and not going up. The cottage is even more terrible. The main force this time seems to be only interested in the pie, and it seems that the funds on the floor are also seriously insufficient. Only bitcoin sucks blood, especially the halving will bring everyone to the pie again.
Do you have any Crypto currency other than BTC? Is it difficult for other cryptocurrencies to have a market in the short term? Do you have any optimism?
Xu Kun: In the long run, I am still very optimistic about Ethereum, and I have always been very concerned about the ecological development of Ethereum. In the current encryption ecosystem, Bitcoin is the first and Ethereum is the second. In terms of on-chain data, ecological development, and community activity, I think the value of Ethereum is still seriously underestimated.
Ethereum first developed smart contracts, and then in token, DApp, DeFi, each stage is the forerunner of the public chain track. According to Dune Analytics data, “In March, the number of smart contracts deployed on the Ethereum network reached nearly 2 million, a record high, an increase of 75% from the previous month. The previous historical record appeared in November 2018, The number of contracts deployed at that time reached nearly 1.5 million, and then fell back to an average of 670,000 in 2019. “This is a valid signal and deserves attention.
After the conversion of Ethereum to PoS, the threshold has been greatly reduced, and more small and medium users can participate in the Ethereum ecosystem. The OKEx mining pool is also prepared for this. It has taken the lead in connecting to the Ethereum 2.0 Topaz testnet, and is also the first large-scale mining pool to openly access the Ethereum 2.0 testnet. The nodes are currently operating stably. In the future, more cooperation will be carried out with the development team Prysmatic Lab to promote the ecological construction of Ethereum. So in the second half of the year, it is worth looking forward to the expectation of eth2.0 to PoS.
Odaily Planet Daily: Several guests have witnessed the industry cycle. In fact, today ’s industry is very different from the last bitcoin halving. On the one hand, there are more professional teams and products, on the other hand, it may affect bitcoin. The factors have also changed. In the past, miners may have mined coins to sell coins, but now many will also make options such as hedging, using platforms such as OKEx or PayPal. So, several guests thought that this halving is different from before?
Xu Kun: First, the changes in the macro environment have caused many investors to reassess various types of assets. Compared with other traditional assets, crypto assets such as BTC and ETH are slowly climbing after the peak in 2017 and are within a relatively reasonable valuation range. , More advantageous in the relative cycle.
Second, the infrastructure of the crypto market is more complete, the variety of Bitcoin derivatives is more abundant, and the product design is more mature, which can support a richer investment strategy. For example, after the option of OKEx went online, the trading volume increased rapidly, and many investors also expressed to me the necessity of option products.
Third, the public’s perception of Bitcoin has improved significantly compared to 4 years ago. After 11 years of development, bitcoin is still alive and proving itself after experiencing various crises. Bitcoin is “anti-fragile”, and the more it undergoes a turbulent environment, the more it can evolve into a stronger state. Bitcoin is now a teenager when he is 11 years old.
Investment advice for retail investors
Odaily Planet Daily: “3.12” serial bursts, after the burst of leverage bulls, retail trading sentiment has been relatively sluggish, panic sentiment is unclear. However, we have also noticed the data recently. OKEx’s traffic in April rose by 147%, and the transaction volume also increased year-on-year. Has the enthusiasm for trading in futures contracts recently recovered? In this special period of halving, do you have any suggestions for retail operations?
Xu Kun: I have also analyzed before that the Crypto asset market is small, so it will recover faster than the traditional market. On the one hand, global liquidity is gradually easing, on the other hand, the halving of Bitcoin is approaching. The halving is still a very influential event for the crypto asset market. Since late April, market sentiment has improved significantly, as can be seen from the rich media activities.
Judging from our transaction big data, the transaction volume has now returned to normal levels. Due to extreme market conditions on the day of “3.12”, the transaction volume has skyrocketed, and the order volume processed by the system on the day of OKEx is almost 50 times that of daily. In terms of open interest, although it has not reached the level of February and March, these two months have been a steady upward trend.
Regarding investment transactions, each person’s risk tolerance is different. It is necessary to choose the right tool and the right leverage multiple according to your own situation. Ordinary traders are more likely to fall into an emotional trap. Faced with gains and losses that are often asymmetrical and vulnerable to short-term gains and losses, they can easily change their strategies. In the long run, this will miss more opportunities. Still have to awe the market, judge calmly, and don’t follow the trend blindly.
risk warning! ! ! After the Spring Festival, many people’s positions have been traded by themselves, so be sure to evaluate the trading risks.