Market summary: Where will bitcoin flow after halving?


Credit: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index

Bitcoin’s long-awaited halving occurred on Monday afternoon New York time. How to do?

At the time it happened (19:23 UTC or 3:30 PM EDT), Bitcoin was trading below its 10-day and 50-day moving averages, and the price fell 10% to 00 on May 10 After the point, the technical indicator is bearish: 00 UTC. This was caused by the failure of Coinbase, a San Francisco-based exchange. As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) fell less than 1% in 24 hours to $ 8,677.


Bitcoin trading on Coinbase since May 9 Source: TradingView

Due to the economic unpredictability caused by the coronavirus pandemic, Bitcoin halving reduced the new supply of Bitcoin generated by cryptocurrency miners from 12.5 per block to 6.25 BTC (from approximately 1,800 BTC per day to 900 BTC). “The international situation is very different from 2016, and Bitcoin has never been tested in the global economic crisis. Therefore, we can expect anything to happen.” Sebastian, CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange Ripio in Argentina · Serrano (Sebastian Serrano) said.

Katie Stockton, managing partner of Fairfield Strategies, said that traders expect the price of Bitcoin to be unpredictable in the short term, so volatility is expected. “We don’t have the large sample size of the past half, but after short-term fluctuations, they usually have a positive effect on market sentiment.”

Read more: As Bitcoin’s halving finally arrives, the price drop eliminates the hype

Stockton added: “I think the expectation of a halving of Bitcoin has caused Bitcoin to perform well in the past few weeks. After a few weeks of shock caused by today’s gap, a break above $ 10,055 is likely to unfold . ”

Mati Greenspan, the founder of quantum economics, wrote in his daily notes that halving may not mean immediate occurrence, but agreeing that this event will be meaningful for a long time of. Greenspan wrote: “In the long run, this may have an impact on prices, because the reduction in daily issuance makes assets more scarce.”

Philip Gradwell, chief economist of analytics company Chainalysis, said at the CoinDesk Consensus: Distributed panel meeting on Monday: “Bitcoin mining pools have actually accumulated before the halving.” “Because of the halving, We may have some liquidity crunch. ”


The pool balance has risen since 2019 Source: Philip Grande (Chainalysis)

Christopher Thomas, head of Crypto assets at Swissquote Bank, said that although the transaction volume of Coinbase had increased before Bitcoin was halved, this does not mean that the transaction volume will continue to grow in the short term. “I think we are now in an area that will not have a lot of retail funding this week. I think our trading price will be between 8,000-9,000 US dollars next week, and it may fall to 7,300 US dollars.”


Source of Coinbase transaction volume in the past month: Skew

Read more: CME Group said the surge in trading volume shows strong institutional interest

As of press time, the ability to mine hashes has not been significantly reduced. Vishal Shah, an options trader and founder of Alpha5, a derivatives exchange, is taking a wait-and-see attitude. “Before we see the mining activity stabilize, I hope to see the evidence in the pudding so that I am not in a hurry to buy Bitcoin.”


Source of Bitcoin hashrate for the past six months:

In addition to looking at the miners preparing for this event, Shah also closely monitors what the miners will do next, including tracking how much mining capacity needs to be closed now and how many sales will occur next month. Therefore, miner incentives are important. He added: “My point of view is that compared with pedestrian speculators, reduced rewards have a greater impact on miner incentives.”

Other markets

On Monday, the Crypto assets on CoinDesk’s board of directors were mixed. Ether, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization (ETH), rose 1.3% in the 24 hours ending at 20:00 UTC (US Eastern Time 4:00 pm)


Ethereum trading on Coinbase since May 9 Source: TradingView

Beneficiaries of cryptocurrencies include green Cardano (ADA) 1.6% and Monero (XMR) which climbed 1%. Declining stocks include nem (XEM) (red 2.9% dash (DASH)) and 2.3% dash (DCR) (red X%). All price changes will begin on Friday UTC 20:00 (EDT 4:00 pm).

Read more: Hedge fund pioneer Paul Tudor Jones holds 1% -2% of Bitcoin’s assets

In the commodities market, gold trading was flat, with a decline of less than one percentage point, and New York’s trading session closed at $ 1,698. The price of oil fell by 2%, because crude oil continued to fluctuate as demand fell.


Source of oil CFDs since May 7: TradingView

In the United States, the S & P 500 index of large stocks remained flat, rising by less than one percentage point. U.S. Treasuries all rose on Monday, with yields contrary to prices, the largest increase in two years, green 9.7%.

In Europe, the FTSE Eurotop 100 publicly traded company index closed flat with a decline of less than 1% as airlines and energy stocks fell. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan’s largest listed company closed up 1.1%. This was due to the ease of the ban on sales across Asia, and the aviation industry was boosted.

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