Is this round of Bitcoin bull market over?

Recently, the development of DeepGo has been relatively busy, and I didn’t pay much attention to the market. Today, I was consulted by a wave of friends, and I will reply here. As a quantitative researcher, I entered the cryptocurrency industry in April 2017. I traveled through bulls and bears many times and shared some personal experiences of old leeks. It is for reference only and does not constitute any advice.

  1. Is this round of Bitcoin bull market over? The answer is obviously no. It’s hard to buy bulls to turn back. Bulls turn back to bears. The bear market is a long-term consolidation, a downturn, and then a sharp fall. In the end, most people retreat and leave the market. From the perspective of the market, it is now at most due to the concentration of bad news, so the big callback, after all, Bitcoin has been rising more than 10 times for a year.
  2. A plunge is a good thing, but a fall is terrible. After the plunge and deleveraging, the market will be more rational, and funds will truly return to mainstream value. Only when cats and dogs do not occupy the power can the pie really hit a new high. If it is a downturn, it means that market capital is continuing to flow out, and the growth engine is failing, and that a bear market is about to come.
  3. The bad policy is not terrible, because if the bad policy is exhausted, it is good. After the boots are on the ground, the dead pig is not afraid of boiling water. The cryptocurrency industry has grown stronger after 94. The current correction is nothing in the eyes of the old leek. Most people can only accept that Bitcoin has risen ten times a year, but cannot accept a 30% decline in a week. The 312 coin disaster in 2019 fell by 70% in one week, but after deleveraging, the bull market continued. Since then, there has been no more $4,000 bitcoin.
  4. The short-term ups and downs of the market cannot be predicted, and we can only grasp the big cycle. Even the most powerful machine learning algorithms cannot predict the future with a high winning rate, but they are rooted in the industry and hold core high-quality assets for a long time. Chunjiang Plumbing Duck Prophet, getting rich is only a matter of time. You don’t need to care about the gains and losses of a place. Plan for a long-term victory.
  5. Some time ago I had dinner with Teacher Lin of DDX. I said this time is different. Teacher Lin asked me “What is different this time?” The answer is that although DeFi has the same bubble as in 2017, the growth of DeFi is more verifiable than 1CO. Users really voted for high-quality assets with their feet, instead of relying on big brother platforms to defraud traffic in 2017. It is precisely under the verifiable mechanism that there are so many landing applications. With the improvement of infrastructure, the growth engine of this round of bull market will be more durable.
  6. DeFi’s backward compatibility, DAO’s adaptation, NFT’s out-of-circle traffic, more and more smart developers join the industry, instead of more and more smart financial brokers joining in 2018, this time is better than the previous bull market. More landing. The rubbish coins that gain traffic will withdraw within a few days, and high-quality assets will still be bought in large quantities by rational people. This is a new evolution of the blockchain industry.
  7. The long-term value of Bitcoin is related to the Fed’s expanded monetary policy. The after-effects of the epidemic are still problematic. The world is still releasing water, and Bitcoin still has the momentum to continue to rise. The Bitcoin market may fluctuate for the first time because of a scumbag, but then it will be desensitized. Since then, the market will become more decentralized, and it will not be defeated by one person’s words. It should be in the middle and late stages of the bull market. After the market has deleveraged, a few days of calm will usher in several waves of continuous rise.
  8. Don’t add leverage, don’t stud all in, delay satisfaction, and cost preservation is the first important thing. Long-term fixed investment in core high-quality assets, filtering worthless junk coins, and always holding some cash. To survive, running for a long time is more important than running fast.

Zen Master Yaoshan Weiyan said that “the cloud is in the blue sky and the water is in the bottle”, which means that objective facts will not deviate due to subjective emotions. Everyone has a suitable position. The rabble is unconscious and easy to follow the crowd blindly, but if you become a qualified investor, you have to be detached from emotions, like a machine strategy, such as the unity of knowledge and action, scientific self-discipline, rigorous truth-seeking, and the natural way of the Tathagata.

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