How to judge the value of public chain through NVT Signal?

NVT (Network Value to Transactions) entered people’s vision as early as 2018, but its birth was as early as 2017, created by crypto asset data researchers Willy Woo and Chris Burniske. In understanding the concept of NVT, people often compare the PE of NVT with stocks. PE is the ratio of stock price to earnings per share and reflects the current valuation.

However, the public chain itself does not create “per-coin” profit. NVT is the ratio of network value and transaction amount on the chain, reflecting the extent to which people use this public chain (frequency of use and amount of transfer) relative to the current price. , Instead of stock profits, reflect the vitality and intrinsic value of the public chain through the amount of transactions on the chain.

The public chain is different from the enterprise. Most of its economic behaviors occur on the chain. Bitcoin’s on-chain behavior is just a transfer. The public chain supporting smart contracts includes more smart contract calling behaviors. If the behaviors on different chains are abstracted as the activities of this public chain economy, then the research on the chain data is similar to the investigation of enterprise fundamentals. NVT is one of the better understood indicators on the blockchain.

Imagine that there are two public chains that carry the entire life cycle of supply chain financial bills. Of course, public chains that carry greater bill value have greater value. Similarly, the PE scope of enterprises in different industries is different, and the types of economic activities carried by public chains are different, so the scope of NVT is also different. Maybe you have doubts about this, can the transaction value on the crypto Crypto currency chain reflect its intrinsic value?

Among the relatively many recognized indicators, NVT has the following advantages.
  1. From an economic perspective, NVT has its guiding significance.
  2. NVT is relatively stable, and it reverts to the mean in the long run.
  3. Relative to market capitalization, NVT enables direct comparison of cryptocurrencies in the same field.
To put it bluntly, NVT is more reliable than you to judge the valuation by looking at the price alone. It is difficult to say whether the Bitcoin of $3000 is high or low, depending on whether it is 2015 or 2020, but NVT is still only in different historical periods. Fluctuation within a certain range is one of the mean regression indicators we introduced earlier. Secondly, NVT can be used as one of the criteria for horizontal selection of value public chains in the same field. When you hesitate to choose BTC, BCH, BSV, LTC, this indicator can be used as a reference.
Most users now use the 90-day average on-chain transaction amount as the denominator of NVT, rather than the transaction amount of the day, thus avoiding the lag of this indicator, but also more reflects that this indicator is the embodiment of the long-term underlying value of the crypto Crypto currency . WillyWoo achieved this optimization in February 2018, and also called him NVT Signal.
It should be noted that the transaction amount on the chain is not a straightforward data, especially considering the UTXO transaction model of BTC. A transaction usually contains multiple inputs and outputs. Which one or several transactions are actually the amount of on-chain transactions that need to be traced back to the transaction address and make bold assumptions. The advantage is that it can be derived from the current data that this is an indicator to evaluate the valuation level of crypto cryptocurrencies.
For a clearer explanation, we will borrow Willy Woo’s chart to illustrate the role of this indicator in predicting the top and bottom of BTC.
The 2013-2014 Bitcoin bull market apex coincides with NVT Signal (in April 2013, January 2014, and July 2014, NVT exceeded 150 points, and the BTC price reached the stage apex, which is a good selling point.)


The culmination of the bull market in 2017 and NVT Signal (At the end of 2017, NVT exceeded 150 again, and the price of BTC reached $20,000, which is another excellent time to sell.)


At the same time, the indicator also shows consistency at the bottom of the predicted bear market (correspondingly, NVT has been lower than 60 times in January, April, July, and October 2017 several times to prove the stage price low).


In Sharpdata, you can view NVT Signal data in real time, and only need a simple setting to remind the change of the indicator 7*24.

If NVT Signal has relatively certain guiding significance in the medium and long term, how does it perform in the short and medium term? Let’s take a look at the valuation trends reflected in the data for the past 6 months. In the past 6 months, BTC NVT Sginal has experienced two rises and one decline. When NVT Signal is lower than 60, the BTC price is at this 6-month low, which is the 3/12 market this year. Combined with NVT Signal, we can avoid excessive panic.

However, after the BTC price stood at US$10,000 in mid-February this year, NVT Signal greater than 100 indicates that the BTC price is overvalued. Ideally, according to NVT Signal, it can be sold for more than 10,000 US dollars in mid-February, and successfully bargained at a price of less than 6,000 after one month.


It should be noted that similar to the survey of corporate fundamentals, NVT Signal reflects one of the “long-term” value indicators of the public chain. The better interpretation of the data in the past few years does not necessarily prove that the indicator will still fit in the future, understand the meaning of NVT Signal, and use it as a start to study the economic activities on the public chain, let us explore the blockchain world together. secret.

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