Former Goldman Sachs hedge fund sales director and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal believes that regardless of the future trend of the US dollar, Bitcoin’s performance will exceed expectations and assume its role as a hedging tool under macroeconomic pressure.
According to Cryptoslate, there has been a long-standing saying in the bitcoin market: if the dollar rises, the bitcoin price will fall-just as the price of gold will usually rise when the dollar is weak. Although the New Crown epidemic has hit the global economy and the US dollar has risen sharply, bitcoin has also soared. A senior on Wall Street predicts that the trend of the simultaneous rebound of the US dollar and Bitcoin will continue for some time.
Pal has managed Goldman Sachs European equity and equity derivatives hedge funds and was invited to participate in the BBC program “Million Dollar Trader” to train participants on investment and risk management. After retiring, he lives in the Cayman Islands, manages Real Vision and writes for The Global Macro Investor.
Pal said, “As the demand for the dollar increases, the dollar will continue to rise. This in turn will drag down global economic growth. The decline in global cash flow has led to an increase in the shortage of dollars and a deterioration in solvency, which has even led to a shortage of dollars.
It seems like a good thing for Americans or people who hold US dollar assets: the recovery of the US dollar means that it costs less to travel abroad and purchase foreign goods.
But Pal believes that this may lead to a “collapse” of the fiat currency system, forcing policy makers to establish a “non-dollar-led currency system.” He believes that Bitcoin is a candidate for the system, and he said “Bitcoin is a reliable , A verifiable, secure, and integrated Crypto system of financial and accounting systems. It is the future of the entire trading system and the future of currency and its operating platform.
Pal envisioned another possibility: As the Fed issued trillions of dollars to stimulate the economy, the dollar actually began to fall.
But in any case, Bitcoin’s performance will exceed expectations, as a tool to evade possible inflation or deflation. He said, “Bitcoin is the best configuration of all asset classes, in terms of technology, fundamentals, capital flows and pipelines.”
Pal boldly speculates that Bitcoin will exceed $ 500,000 in the future. Suppose that the supply of Bitcoin is less than 20 million coins, and the total market value of each coin exceeding $ 500,000 is $ 10 trillion. To support this argument, Pal also cited the model of Bitcoin analyst “PlanB”, with an accuracy of 99.7% R-squared, predicting that the average price of Bitcoin in 2020–2025 will be $ 288,000.