Many people are posting to Moments to commemorate 94, but I think some people named this wave “August 21st Incident” (Myna, two treasures and one sister). .
In fact, sometimes I also wonder whether this starling will sell the account to “Gou Zhuang”, every time before hitting the market, tease us to have a good time, otherwise the time is so accurate, when the Weibo in the picture above was posted There was 11,400 in the pie, and it lost 1,000 dollars after ten hours. .
Hello, everyone, I’m Peipei, I just made a joke at the beginning, I’m more serious, I just hope that under the somewhat confused market today, I still try to have a relaxed atmosphere.
Looking at today, many people are also looking for the reasons. Some people think that the defi crash caused the withdrawal of funds or lack of liquidity, some think that it is a sell-off by miners, and some think it is the mark of 94 three years ago, but I looked around and felt that this time The impact of overseas capital markets will be even greater, and if there is a word of comfort, we are not the worst:
Apple directly evaporated $179.9 billion, almost evaporating the entire Bitcoin market value in a day.
When I wandered around in various communities in the afternoon, I felt that the mood of bargaining was still very strong, but I think it’s commendable to enter the market now (especially those who copied grapefruit this morning also made a small profit), and the concept of old leek The mainstream currencies in China (including btc), this wave has not risen much, there is no bubble, and the price area is not considered dangerous.
However, the individual will tend to wait and see, especially if buying long-term holdings rather than just a rebound.
Why do you say that.
One is the external environment mentioned above. There is still uncertainty. U.S. stocks have also been rising since the rebound of the black swan in March. There is no adjustment. Many of the underlying performances are not inferior to the currency circle. Considering the current encryption The right to determine prices is more overseas, and there is consistency between users and overseas financial asset holders, and the related influence is inevitable. Therefore, it may still be necessary to pay attention to the impact in the future.
The other is the easiest way to look at the line. Regardless of the daily or weekly btc, the downward trend is a feeling that is unfinished.
The situation in the future is better. It is also a view of previous overseas analysts. It will drop below 10,000, possibly 9700, 9500. It will be a short time and then go back to the next wave (Insert a magic stick prediction: I think October There will be another wave); if it is worse, it may be another two or three months of shock, just like this time last year.
If you don’t consider the external situation, you can say that we are inside the currency circle. The following three indicators can be observed later:
1. Panic and Greed Index
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
It will not tell you the precise buying and selling points, but it is still very helpful to feel the market conditions. For example, there are not many coins that have been cut from yesterday to today, but the panic and greed index has been cut directly from 80 to 40, from extreme greed. Turn to panic:
This is a chart of indicator changes in the past two years:
Generally speaking, we still have to wait until the time of extreme panic to pursue the price-to-price ratio. We don’t know if there is any chance in this wave. At present, it is just back to mid-June, where the defi mining boom just started.
2. Gas fee
In fact, history has proved many times that, whether it is bit transfer fees or ether gas fees, every time it rises, it cannot last for a long time.
This round of more heat is brought by the Ethereum ecology, so I think if you really want to wait for a trough, you may have to wait for the gas to cool down. Although the defi coin has fallen so much that my mother does not recognize it, but today night There is no significant drop in gas costs:
The bullet seems to fly for a while.
3. Does the defi collapse?
The logic of the defi bull market is now clear to everyone. Every trading pair in each dex needs a liquidity fund pool. Through token incentives, everyone can lock all kinds of crypto assets on it. This is a buy -Lock-in-Earn token revenue and the price of the currency is still rising-more buy-in lock-in, a bull market formed by such a positive cycle.
It should be noted that when will this be an inflection point? I think it will be when more funds, especially speculative funds, find that the income can no longer cover the decline in the mortgaged assets, they will choose to redeem and escape, then this cycle It may become that withdrawing cash-falling prices-more redemptions-reduced liquidity leads to faster price drops.
The chain reaction here takes a while, and it may not necessarily be the highest peak now, because no one knows, maybe there will be a “savior internet celebrity” next week, and give another breath, just say that if it is already It is the high point of the three waves, and there is still a process to collapse.
At least looking at the data, there is no clear evidence to show that it really doesn’t work here.
What data can be seen about the fundamentals of the defi market? There are actually two more places:
(1) defipulse.com
It can be seen that today there is a slight correction in the value of locked assets compared to the previous two days. The total locked up funds are currently US$8.8 billion, but it should also be noted that this reduction is likely to be due to the decline in the price of crypto assets such as ether. Because I see the ETH locked position graph is still in an upward growth state:
(2) debank.com/ranking/locked_value
This is also a website about defi data. Compared with defipulse, the data of newly promoted small internet celebrity projects will be clearer. It has a ranking list of locked positions, and you can observe the changes in the amount of locked positions of these projects (note that it is Daily update, not real-time update):
From the perspective of 24-hour changes, the new generation defi is relatively unstable, and the outflow of funds will be much larger, while the flow of funds is relatively stable for mainstream mining projects. In addition, you can also pay more attention to the yield rate of the YFI machine gun pool. As we said before, YFI is to mine for everyone. If this part is no longer profitable, it may be when the market valuation returns to normal. .
Conclusion
From the above, has defi really collapsed? At least what I see is that it hasn’t yet, but it is indeed a relatively new small project, especially the ether, and the risk and uncertainty are getting bigger and bigger.
Finally, I want to say that liquid mining is likely to exist for a long time, because this kind of dex that operates as a liquid capital pool will exist for a long time. There are always people in this market who have funds who are not so concerned about short-term currency price fluctuations. Would be willing to come to be this market maker, but if most of this piece is speculative funds, they are short-lived and will fade away with the tide. You just have to wait for the opportunity for the tide to fade, and you need patience.