This article is about the review and inventory of public chain projects in the second half of 2022. The author focuses on the most active public chains—Ethereum, Polygon and BSC. Let’s take a look at the fundamentals of these public chains after the LUNA crash. At the same time, let’s dig into the project that is quietly working in the bear market, LFG!! (data from 2022-6-1 to 2022-12-31).
1. Ethereum
(1) On-chain performance
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
The overall performance of Ethereum is relatively stable in the second half of the year. Monthly data shows that, except for the USD-denominated Gas Fee income fluctuating with the currency price (income is about $70m/month), other indicators such as the number of transactions (tx) are stable at Between 31m and 34m; the number of users (users) was relatively negative in June (about 4.3m), but it began to improve in the next few months and basically stabilized at around 6m (fluctuating 1m).
In terms of proportion, each transaction fee (fee / tx) fluctuates with the currency price, and the fee per transaction in Q4 is about $2.2 – 3.7. Customer unit price (fee / users) and single user activity (tx / users) tended to fall and returned to normal values (4-5 transactions per month) after the FTX incident and large-scale liquidation in October.
In terms of percentage growth, compared to the downturn in June, Ethereum achieved +60% user growth, but the transaction volume remained unchanged (+3%), mainly due to the decline in user activity (tx/users) in the bear market ( -32%), in general, Ethereum still retained users and transaction volume in the second half of the recession.
(2) Agreement/project performance
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
In the second half of the year, the top 10 agreement contracts (excluding exchange accounts/EVM robots/ERC20 and other contract addresses) accounted for 13% of the total transaction volume in the second half of the year; among them, DEX and NFT Marketplace (respectively accounted for 45% and 37%), and Uniswap and Opensea are the only ones. However, under the bear market, the NFT market gradually cooled, and the number of transactions of Opensea and x2🈷y2 both shrank by more than 30%. In contrast, the performance of the DEX track is even more prominent. The number of transactions (tx) of Uniswap has increased by 105%, and the number of aggregated transactions of Metamask has increased by 22%.
Xen Crytpo is an interesting experiment and has been participated by many users (most of them may be robots), and the number of participating independent wallets (Active Users) is the largest. The overall registration data of ENS is good, but it still cannot withstand the bear market, and the number of transactions has been falling in the second half of the year. Linagee (https://twitter.com/LeonidasNFT/status/1575670601330499584), as the earliest contract of Ethereum, was mined in October, and many people went to mint to use the “10k” number. After a short-lived, there is no specific use case below. Activity is almost zero.
2. Binance Smart Chain (BSC)
(1) On-chain performance
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
BSC still maintains a high number of transactions (tx) (97m – 100m) and number of users (7m – 11m). In terms of income, it is stable at about $20m per month. However, in December, it was affected by FUD aimed at its own compliance issues, and the data in all aspects declined rapidly on a large scale.
In terms of proportion, BSC’s performance is not very good, especially the single user activity (tx / users) is only 0.20 transactions per month, and it dropped to 0.15 transactions per month in December.
In terms of overall growth, although BSC achieved a user growth of about 40% in the bear market in the second half of the year, the number of transactions (-20%) and fee income (-28%) did not match the growth, but showed a big decline. . After Binance attracted (SBT in August) users to the BSC chain through its strong user base of CEX, it did not succeed in retaining them. Overall, the performance of BSC in the second half of the year was not very good, especially in Q4, the decline showed signs of accelerating.
(2) Project/protocol performance
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
BSC’s top 10 protocols contributed 23% of the network’s transaction volume. Among them, although PancakeSwap is the only one, we have seen more diverse protocol directions, and we have also seen more new protocols that have exploded and grown in the bear market on the list.
The hardware wallet Keystone contract was launched in August, and the total number of transactions was 9m at the end of the year. Galxe, the DID task platform, had only 80k transactions in June, and reached 1.6m transactions in December. Tiny Worlds (https://tinyworlds.io/) has the largest percentage increase among all the protocols on the list, from 28k in June to 128k in December, completing a growth of 2600%.
3. Polygon
(1) On-chain performance
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
In the second half of the year, Polygon’s monthly transactions (tx) were relatively stable at around 90m, the number of users continued to grow (24m – 39m), and revenue fluctuated with currency prices ($10 – $25m).
In terms of proportion, users are relatively active, with a single address activity (tx/user) of 23 transactions per month.
In terms of overall growth, in the second half of the year, Polygon achieved a 4.8% increase in the number of transactions and a 60% increase in the number of users. The proportion has declined but is milder than BSC and ETH.
(2) Agreement/project performance
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto
Polygon’s TOP10 protocol contributed about 11% of the transactions in the second half of the year. Although it is mainly about games, the track distribution is wider and the market share does not see a single dominant player. They are all relatively decentralized.
In terms of growth, Galxe led the way, achieving a 69-fold increase in the number of transactions in the second half of the year (49k/month – 3.3m/month). Other protocols such as the social graph Lens and the game Planet IX also experienced 2x and 4.5x increases. The worst performers were Opensea (-85%) and Quickswap (-37%). Decentralization. In addition, there are more subdivided professional trading platforms in the NFT market. For example, the very active Planet IX and Zedrun have launched their own exclusive NFT trading markets, which further shrinks Opensea’s trading volume.
4. Summary
From the perspective of fundamental development on the chain in the second half of 2022, Polygon > Ethereum > BSC. Although Ethereum still sits firmly at the top, it is only stable in the bear market, while Polygon is rising against the trend. BSC has been greatly affected by FUD, and all aspects of data are falling.
In terms of valuation, since Polygon tends to be mostly asset-light applications, there will be less consideration of using TVL as a multiplier. However, even if the number of transactions (tx) is used as a multiplier, it is still weaker than ETH in terms of valuation, which may be Price -in reason. Therefore, considering the current and target valuation, the expectation for tokens in Q1 of 2023 is ETH > MATIC > BNB (not investment advice).
Source: ViaBTC Capital, Flipside Crypto, DefiLlama
Disclaimer: This article is only the author’s personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.