Chu Yuechen: On November 24, the Federal Reserve slowed down the rate hike. Has Bitcoin and Ethereum bottomed out?

Fed officials concluded earlier this month that the central bank should slow the pace of rate hikes soon to reduce the risk of overtightening, signaling their preference for a cut to 50 basis points in December.

According to the minutes of the Nov. 1-2 meeting released in Washington on Wednesday, “the overwhelming majority of participants felt that an appropriate slowdown in the pace of growth was likely to occur soon.”

FOMC participants cited a number of considerations that could affect the pace of future rate hikes. These considerations include the cumulative degree of tightening of monetary policy to date, the lag between monetary policy actions and the behavior of economic activity and inflation, and the state of economic and financial developments.

With inflation still too high and showing little sign of easing, participants felt that a period of below-trend growth in real GDP would help bring aggregate supply and demand into a better balance and reduce inflationary pressures , and create conditions for continuing to achieve the goals of maximum employment and price stability.

The minutes of the latest meeting also showed that its in-house economists expected a roughly 50% chance of a U.S. recession next year. “Sluggish growth in real domestic private sector spending, a deteriorating global outlook, and tightening financial conditions were all considered to pose prominent downside risks to the forecast for real economic activity; furthermore, a sustained decline in inflation may require financial conditions to rise above The possibility of tightening to the extent expected is also seen as a downside risk.”

After the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting, the U.S. dollar index DXY fell more than 30 points in the short term, reaching as low as 106.04 on the refresh day, and closed at 106.14 in late trading, a drop of 0.97%.

Chu Yuechen: 11.24 Bitcoin ETH market analysis and trading reference

Yesterday, the pancake market was relatively stable during the day and basically fluctuated within a narrow range between 16300 and 16500 throughout the day. It also rose in the evening due to the impact of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. We mentioned before that because of the high inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve had to forcefully raise interest rates, so we also shorted all the way from the price of 21,000 in early November. As of the price low of 15,500, we have almost made an empty order of 6,000 points.

However, with the recent alternation of Fed hawks and doves, especially last night’s Fed meeting minutes, we see the possibility of a fall in inflation and a slowdown in interest rate hikes, including the possibility of interest rates peaking. Therefore, purely from the perspective of the economic environment, we cannot always be bearish on the market outlook. I think we have seen the possibility of shocks and upward movement.

In terms of technical aspects of the big pie in the day, we pay attention to the pressure of 17200 above. If we can break through this pressure level, we will continue to call 18000 in the market outlook. The following refers to the short-term support of 16300-16000, and the strong support is the low point of 15400. This line has been touched many times, and it is currently holding up, and as the Fed no longer raises interest rates aggressively, it is likely to be the low point of this round of decline.

Let me tell you here, the soul of making a contract is to adapt to the situation, don’t be single-minded, just look in one direction if you are stubborn, that is unnecessary. Once the trend may reverse, your thinking must keep up.

Others may feel that it is enough to read the article strategy here and there every day, without actual guidance. I even feel that the teacher’s guidance is not as good as my own! Indeed, when the market is going well, it is true that you can make money no matter what you do. But you have to think clearly, when the risk comes, you will not not solve it, do you have the ability to solve it?

Take a look back and see if your total rate of return is positive or negative. Don’t think that you are doing well because you have done well for a period of time. If this industry is so easy to do, how can so many people lose money? 28th law, are you sure you are the 20%?

Okay, enough talking, back to the market, it is too early to say that it has bottomed out, let’s see if we can go uphill to 17200. Refer to the first-line layout of 16300-16000 for multiple orders within the day, and look at 17000-17200. There is a reason for ETH, call back more than 1140-1150 orders, look at the 1230 line.

Specific operation suggestions (subject to the real position price list)

1. Long orders around Bitcoin 16000-16300, stop profit 17000-17200, stop loss 15400

2. ETH1140—1150 long order, stop profit 1230, stop loss 1050

Before the market comes out, any kind of analysis is correct, and there are correct reasons, but any order will not be absolutely accurate and has risks, so the prerequisite for making money must be to do a good job in risk control. The market changes in real time, and the strategic points are only for reference, not as a basis for entry, investment is risky, and you are responsible for your own profits and losses.

Text/Chu Yuechen

Many individual investors are unable to enter the door of trading, and most of the time it is only because of the lack of a leader, and the problems you have been thinking about may be solved with a few pointers from experienced people.

For more real-time market analysis, please pay attention to the official account: Chu Yuechen

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