[Chang Zhong Zen said]Market analysis on 3.15, during the period of rising pause, how to arrange the next wave of opportunities?


Interpretation of cryptocurrency news

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers said that considering the importance of beating inflation, it is still reasonable for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week. “In my view, the Fed would be making a serious mistake if it stopped focusing on getting inflation back down toward its 2 percent target range,” Summers said in a televised interview. “I expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week is still appropriate, but things will always change.” Summers said: “I would not rule anything out now.” But if the rate hike is made based on the situation before Monday The 50 basis point decision was “unwise”. He said that the focus will be on the US CPI data and the development of financial markets in the coming week. If the cpi is improving, the currency circle will definitely usher in a wave of profiteering rebound!

Overview of important news

1. Nomura expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March and pause quantitative tightening:

2. The related address of Cai Wensheng has transferred 3,800 ETH to Binance since yesterday;

3. Summers: It is still appropriate for the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week;

4. FBI: Internet fraud reports will surge by more than $3 billion in 2022, and encryption investment fraud will nearly triple:

5. A multi-signature address of MKR transferred 263,000 AXS to Coinbase last night;

6. The main online launch of the privacy network lron Fish is postponed to April 20;

7. The new CEO of Silicon Valley Bank: business in the United States will continue as usual, and depositors can withdraw funds in full;

8. Signature board members: Banks are insolvent, shut down or due to regulators’ anti-crypto stance;

9. Bloomberg: U.S. prosecutors are investigating the group chat records of Jump, Alameda and others involved in bailing out the de-anchored stablecoin UST in May last year.


Cryptocurrency Trading Experience

mentality training

The three main psychological emotions that are common in trading are greed, obsession and fear. Investors need a strong trading psychological system to control and even use the above three emotions at different stages.

a reasonable psychological expectation

Before trading, there must be an overall expectation for the future, including market expectations and target psychological expectations. Market expectation refers to having a relatively clear goal on the position and future direction of the market, and target expectation refers to the trading opportunities and risk status of the target at the current position. Without the above psychological foundation, everything is out of the question.

Although we failed to fully follow the market rhythm and maximize profits, our psychological expectations were reasonable and basically in line with the general direction of the market, thus avoiding greed, entanglement and fear, staying away from unexpected risks, and achieving expected returns.

Two open-minded trading mentality

Firm offer operation is the core test stage of trading psychology. The whole trading process should be: calmly build a position, wait patiently, analyze rationally and operate decisively. In trading, when you encounter problems, you must first control your mentality and emotions, but many traders are not like this. Because of eagerness, worry, greed, and fear, their trading plans are often “distorted”, and a lot of time and energy are wasted in the end. But not good.

To sum up the trading process, most traders often have the following psychological problems:

First, the excessive speculative mentality is serious. Investment is a process of increasing wealth, but many people regard it as a shortcut to get rich, which turns investment into gambling.

The second is to give up familiar varieties, blindly follow the trend and compare with others, and fail to stick to the trading principles.

The third is that the trading plan is often changed. If the subject fluctuates slightly, it will be adjusted from time to time, which will make the mentality worse.

The fourth is to focus too much on the profit and loss and ignore the transaction itself. Only by respecting the trend of the target and formulating corresponding countermeasures can the transaction be done better, otherwise, due to impatience or pressure, you will be unable to withstand fluctuations and rush out, thus missing good opportunities or failing to stop losses decisively.

Fifth, they cannot think independently and follow the crowd too much. The truth is often in the hands of a few people, and we must think and judge independently.

Sixth, you can’t follow the trend. Some traders rotely use the investment logic of “others are fearful and I am greedy”, deliberately bearish when there is a big rise, and bullish when there is a big fall. But generally speaking, whether it is a big rise or a big fall, you can’t keep your profits in the end, and you fall into the whirlpool of thinking you set up and can’t extricate yourself.

Seventh, I can’t bear loneliness, and I want to change when I see something different. In a trending market, most targets have their own expectations and rhythms. As long as the trend remains unchanged and the technical support is in place, try not to switch targets frequently.

Eight is one-sided pursuit of certainty and perfection. The transaction itself is full of various possibilities. What most people can do is to increase the certainty as much as possible. Excessive pursuit of perfection is not worth the loss. Trading itself is a process of continuous cultivation. Excessive pursuit of perfection will lead to psychological frustration and directly affect normal judgment and analysis.


Cryptocurrency market analysis

There is a need for a rebound in the S&P 500, and the long-short dividing point is 3920. It is still a weak behavior for the price to remain below. A breakthrough may end the decline.

The 30-minute trend of the big pie, the whole wave of rise since 19525 has come to an end. Pulling up and diverging last night, the intraday price will continue to remain below 24850 and will be further passivated.

As mentioned before, the 30-minute trend will expand around 22300-23200.

The price is above the 23200 center, which is judged to be a strong adjustment, and the three-wave structure will increase more than 6950 dollars in the future.

The price is located in the center, you need to be more vigilant to prevent the skyrocketing door (in extreme cases, you must first fall below 22300)

In terms of operation, pay attention to the five-minute rebound divergence in the intraday rebound, which can be called back by the game. Upward trading needs to wait for the callback to end.

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