[Chang Zhong Chan said]11.24 market analysis, market recovery, can a big opportunity be brewed?

01

Interpretation of cryptocurrency news

Bnance CEO CZ posted on social media: Coinbase Custody holds 635,000 bitcoins for Grayscale, and four months ago, Coinbase had less than 600,000 bitcoins. Then Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted on social media: Coinbase is a listed company with financial disclosures, holding about 2 million bitcoins, worth about $39.9 billion as of September 30, and said we need to unite, To build this industry responsibly, beware of misinformation. CZ wants to kill all the top exchanges now. It’s okay for a novice like SBF. How can an old fritter like Coinbase be easily screwed by CZ. This industry needs normal competition, not vicious competition. Vicious competition will only harm the industry. I also hope that CZ will focus on the development of technology and development, and stop biting.

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management said U.S. fed funds futures imply terminal rates will peak near 5% around April or May next year, in line with core inflation expectations forecast by currency swaps, which are priced at Bond buyers provided a cushion. Morgan Stanley has a dovish view on terminal interest rates, and it expects the federal funds terminal rate to be 4.625% in February next year. As long as the Fed slows down raising or lowering interest rates, it will definitely be a wave of good news for the investment market.

02

Cryptocurrency Trading Experience

mentality training

The three main psychological emotions that are common in trading are greed, obsession and fear. Investors need a strong trading psychological system to control and even use the above three emotions at different stages.

a reasonable psychological expectation

Before trading, there must be an overall expectation for the future, including market expectations and target psychological expectations. Market expectation refers to having a relatively clear goal for the position and future direction of the market, and target expectation refers to the trading opportunities and risk status of the target at the current position. Without the above psychological foundation, everything is out of the question.

Although we failed to fully follow the market rhythm and maximize profits, our psychological expectations were reasonable and basically in line with the general direction of the market, thus avoiding greed, entanglement and fear, staying away from unexpected risks, and achieving expected returns.

Two open-minded trading mentality

Firm offer operation is the core test stage of trading psychology. The whole trading process should be: calmly build a position, wait patiently, analyze rationally and operate decisively. In trading, when you encounter problems, you must first control your mentality and emotions, but many traders are not like this. Because of eagerness, worry, greed, and fear, their trading plans are often “distorted”, and a lot of time and energy are wasted in the end. But not good.

To sum up the trading process, most traders often have the following psychological problems:

One is the serious over-speculative mentality. Investment is a process of increasing wealth, but many people regard it as a shortcut to get rich, which turns investment into gambling.

The second is to give up familiar varieties, blindly follow the trend and compare with others, and fail to stick to the trading principles.

The third is that the trading plan is often changed. If the subject fluctuates slightly, it will be adjusted from time to time, which will make the mentality worse.

The fourth is to focus too much on the profit and loss and ignore the transaction itself. Only by respecting the trend of the target and formulating corresponding countermeasures can the transaction be done better, otherwise, due to impatience or pressure, you will be unable to withstand fluctuations and rush out, thus missing opportunities or failing to stop losses decisively.

Fifth, they cannot think independently and follow the crowd too much. The truth is often in the hands of a few people, and we must think and judge independently.

Sixth, you can’t follow the trend. Some traders rotely use the investment logic of “others are fearful and I am greedy”, deliberately bearish when there is a big rise, and bullish when there is a big fall. But generally speaking, whether it is a big rise or a big fall, you can’t keep your profits in the end, and you fall into the whirlpool of thinking you set up and can’t extricate yourself.

Seventh, I can’t stand loneliness, and I want to change when I see something different. In a trending market, most targets have their own expectations and rhythms. As long as the trend remains unchanged and the technical support is in place, try not to switch targets frequently.

Eighth is the one-sided pursuit of certainty and perfection. The transaction itself is full of various possibilities. What most people can do is to increase the certainty as much as possible. Excessive pursuit of perfection is not worth the loss. Trading itself is a process of continuous cultivation. Excessive pursuit of perfection will lead to psychological frustration and directly affect normal judgment and analysis.

03

Cryptocurrency market analysis

The S&P hit upward again, broke through the resistance of 4000, maintained the previous view, ended the previous period of decline, and developed into a new driving wave with a high probability. (The daily line level is rising, and whether the rise can continue only needs to pay attention to the zero point of the sub-level interval set at about 3915).

Judging from the 30-minute trend of the big pie, five stages of rise have been formed since the low point, which can be a driving wave or a driving wave. The difference between the two lies in the strength.

Maintain the previous view: Breaking through 17130 is the end of the decline since 21489, starting a four-hour level rise, with a target around 18100.

If there is no breakthrough, it is considered to be only a five-stage rise in 30 minutes, and there will be three stages in which the center will upgrade the second type of selling point in 30 minutes in the future.

Reference for judging the end of the rise since the low point: 15f trend divergence + five-minute heavy volume divergence, level linkage interval set failed or the rising trend line since the low point fell below.

In terms of operation, we still continue to be bullish at present, and we need to pay attention to the long-short conversion at the key position of 17130.

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