BTC will continue to fluctuate between $16,500-21,100

The exchange rate for the first crypto remains between $16,500-21,100, reflecting a fragile supply-demand balance. Glassnode analysts wrote that on-chain metrics point to no short-to-long transition and the risk of a new round of coin redistribution.

Depending on the duration of this process in the past, the formation of a bottom in 2022 is likely to continue, experts stressed.

Currently, Crypto gold quotes for the past three months have been sandwiched between the realized price ($21,100) and the equilibrium price ($16,500). In 2014-2015 and 2018-2019, this period lasted 10 months and 5.5 months, respectively.

Data: Glassnode.

The length of the hodlers’ capitulation period can also be used to assess reversal of growth trajectories. The latter occurs when the average cost of acquiring coins for such market participants is lower than the selling price. In other words, long-term investors are starting to “lose” to “average” investors, the analyst explained.

Currently, this period lasts 3.5 months. In the first two bear markets, they were 8 months and 17 months.

Data: Glassnode.

As an early indication of new demand, it can be judged when the share of “profitable” tokens typically exceeds this metric associated with hodlers. This transition has yet to happen. The first indicator is 56% and the second is 60%. Experts estimate that to surpass their value, it would take a “fresh” purchase and a break of the $21,700 mark on price.

Data: Glassnode.

Similar signals can be evaluated not only in terms of unrealized profit/loss, but also in terms of the financial outcome of the owner spending coins. The ratio’s 90-day moving average is 0.57. In other words, investors continue to focus primarily on covering losses.

The new wave of inflows and profit-taking has yet to outweigh sellers’ losses. The indicator has been below 1 for the past 125 days, down from 375 days and 263 days in the previous bear market.

Data: Glassnode.

Recall that in October, Glassnode analysts saw bullish and bearish scenarios for Bitcoin.

Earlier, trader Ton Weiss predicted that the price of the first crypto would rise to $100,000 in 2023 against the backdrop of the upcoming halving.

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Source of information: compiled from FORKLOG by 0x information.The copyright belongs to the author Петр Иванов, and may not be reproduced without permission

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