Predicting the future direction of Bitcoin’s price is no easy task, but there are some data that bode well.
These figures are not enough to suggest that the price of Bitcoin may rise, but if nothing else, they reveal the scenario where it may eventually rise.
While we cannot precisely quantify how likely a Bitcoin price climb from January really is, the scenario at least seems plausible for now.
Current Scenarios and Future Scenarios: Bitcoin Price Predictions
Market value is simply the price at which transactions (i.e. purchases and sales) occur.
This price mainly depends on supply and demand. When these two forces are in balance, prices tend to remain relatively stable, i.e. sideways. However, if this relationship becomes unbalanced on the demand or supply side, the price will change.
To move upwards in particular, it is necessary for the equilibrium to shift in favor of demand, either through an increase in demand itself or a decrease in supply or both.
Supply appears to be relatively stable at the moment. Therefore, if demand increases significantly, prices may increase if supply continues to remain stable.
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, number 47, comparing the supply held by long-term holders (LTH) with the supply held by the last active person a year or more ago, it can be seen that the former is decreasing , while the former is decreasing and the latter is steadily increasing.
This suggests that long-term holders are currently selling, while those who bought during the bull market are buying.
Bitfinex analysts interpreted this phenomenon as a positive phenomenon for the cryptocurrency market as it spurs demand from new entrants. This, combined with a relatively stable and limited supply, suggests that prices could actually rise if buying volumes increase.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s weekly spot trading volume surged last week, reaching its highest level since mid-2021. Therefore, if there is a demand imbalance, the trading volume at this time can also imagine that the price will rise sharply.
While it is impossible to predict whether we will increase demand, these data clearly show that such a scenario is far from impossible.
In fact, recent entrants to the cryptocurrency market, especially those who entered during the last bull run, appear to be continuing to buy and hold, so it is conceivable that demand will eventually increase.
Comments from Bitfinex analysts
Bitfinex analysts commented on the report’s findings, adding that the derivatives market saw nearly $1 trillion in bitcoin futures traded across multiple exchanges last week, with bitcoin options open interest rising to 12.14 billion Dollar.
they said:
“It shows that institutional investors are getting more involved in the market. – suggesting that we may be in the early stages of a bull market. While this activity sounds attractive to investors, it usually comes with increased volatility .”
As such, they warn investors and speculators that while this period could theoretically be the first phase of a bull market, it could also be marked by increased volatility.
Therefore, this may not be a period of mundane price increases, but a period of rapid and significant price movements that may end in de facto increases.
Additionally, they point out how the BTC Long Term Holder (LTH) Spending Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has returned to levels above 1 over multiple time intervals, indicating that trading is becoming profitable.
They added:
“The behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders selling Bitcoin under current market conditions is consistent with previous bear market trends, which is a positive signal for the market.”
These are just signals, and theoretically they can be rejected at any time.
However, the overall environment at this point appears to be positive, as indicated by the Fear and Greed Index, which remains in sharply higher territory even after yesterday’s dip on bad news about Binance.
Therefore, as long as the market demand for BTC increases, the conditions seem likely to increase the price of Bitcoin. Currently, this growth has not happened, nor is there any guarantee that it will.
Source of information: Compiled from CRYPTONOMIST by 0x Information.Copyright belongs to the author Marco Cavicchioli, without permission, may not be reproduced