To analyze the price of Bitcoin, you first need to have basic data. The crypto market is very similar to the foreign exchange market. There is no unified and authoritative trading market. This is a bit of an Internet spirit. Globally, as many as thousands of trading venues are trading bitcoin, but the denominated currencies and transaction prices vary widely, are not completely consistent, and there is no recognized standard price.
The most active exchanges, Huobi, OKEX, Coinbase Pro, and Bittrex have a history of no more than five or six years, and the leading Binance is only 2 years old.
The Bitcoin price chart provided by the commonly used data website CoinMarketCap can be traced back to April 28, 2013. The currency price that day was 134 dollars .
Bitstamp quotes starting on August 18, 2011 , may be the longest surviving exchange market . The earliest currency price was USD 10.9 .
The price record provided by the data platform Bitcoinvisuals can be traced back to July 17, 2010, which is the earliest price of Mt.Gox (Mentougou).
The Mt.Gox exchange opened on July 17, 2010, and once occupied 80% of the global bitcoin transaction. It is the absolute leader of the global bitcoin transaction. In 2014, after the infamous bitcoin theft, Mentougou filed for bankruptcy protection in Tokyo, triggering a two-year bear market in bitcoin history. The compensation issue has not yet been resolved. Mentougou price is a well-recognized quotation after a full game, and has important historical significance in the early trading of Bitcoin. The quotation of Mentougou on the first day was 0.04951 USD . Now, you can still see these price records in bitcoincharts.
If we start from this price, the biggest increase in Bitcoin history is 0.04951-19666 USD (bitstamp), which is 39721168%, and it has risen 397,000 times since the “listing”.
At present, most Crypto market analysts use data from July 2010. This version is recognized as the most complete open market transaction price of Bitcoin. It looks like this:
However, Bitcoin was born on January 3, 2009, and reached 1.5 years of age in July 2010. There were also several transactions. These transactions and pricing have become an important reference price point for studying the history of Bitcoin, especially its price model .
Of course, this part is more advanced. This is the content of the “Bitcoin Archaeology” course of the first semester of Crypto College undergraduates at Stanford University in 2036.
On the day we opened Mentougou (July 17, 2010), we moved forward in reverse chronological order.
It is believed that at the end of June 2010 (the end of the year), Gavin Andresen bought 10,000 bitcoins for $ 50, and then on the Bitcoin Faucet website, freely give 5 bitcoins to all people who visit the site as a way to attract the site. .
This great god is one of the founders of Bitcoin, “Nakamoto Succeeder”, was crowned as the chief developer of Bitcoin by Satoshi Nakamoto. Later, because he supported the expansion of the block and the scammer Craig Steven Wright, he made a mistake in routing and collapsed. Now this website can’t be opened, but screenshots are still circulating on the rivers and lakes. This is a marketing activity carried out by Bitcoin’s core development team in the early days of Bitcoin. At the current price, one bitcoin was worth 0.005 USD .
Moving forward, it is the ” Bitcoin Pizza Day “, which has a huge impact, and it is also the origin of the Chinese community jokingly calling Bitcoin a “bread.” In the early morning of May 18, 2010, American Laszlo Hanyecz (screen name laszlo) posted on BitcoinTalk, wanting to buy two large (pizza) pies with 10,000 bitcoins, one for the same day and the other for the next day. At 7pm on May 22nd, Hanyecz’s prodigal game announced to the world that it had bought two boxes of Papa John’s Pizzas with 10,000 bitcoins. The original post still exists:
Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC, and Jeremy Sturdivant, the guy who made the deal with him, paid only $ 25 for a bargain and took care of it. However, it is said that the market price of 10,000 bitcoins is $ 41, or 0.41 cents per unit .
In fact, the earliest exchange was not Mentougou, but BitcoinMarket.com . This is what Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said. He also found some price screenshots. The evidence shows that on April 25, 2010, Bitcoin was traded at a price of 0.3 cents, and the transaction amount on the day was $ 3. But it is clear that this market is too deserted, not the fully fluctuating price of Mentougou. On this day, on April 25, 2010, the currency price was 0.003 USD.
According to Bernard Berlin Beta Pa, BitcoinMarket has been opened as early as March 17, 2010, which has also been recognized and adopted by analyst Plan B.
This site was first proposed on bitcointalk. On January 15, 2010, dwdollar posted a post saying that an exchange would be built. This should be the origin of exchanges that have blossomed all over the next decade.
After http://Bitcoinmarket.com went online on March 17, 2010, Paypal was used as a fiat currency payment tool, but the website was full of loopholes and there was only one quote for a long time, $ 0.003. Later, it was not closed because of too many scammers. This price point on March 17, 2010 is very important and was the earliest exchange Bitcoin price, $ 0.003 .
Going forward, the earliest price point in 2010 may be the wallpaper event on January 24. On that day, Sabunir posted a message on http://bitcointalk.org, asking if anyone wanted to buy a photo for $ 1 and charged 500 bitcoins equivalent to $ 1. This picture was made by himself, very beautiful, and can be used as computer wallpaper. Moreover, Sabunir claims that this pricing (1 USD = 500 BTC) is based on the pricing of the New Liberty Standard. New Liberty Standard himself also participated in technical discussions, and some people wanted to consult Satoshi Nakamoto on technical issues.
Checking his address, he found that there was a record of 500 bitcoin collection on February 24:
If this is indeed a transaction to sell wallpapers, then this will be an off-exchange bitcoin transaction earlier than Bitcoin Pizza Day on May 22, 2010, and the price will be $ 0.0020 .
In my opinion, this transaction is worth incorporating into the history of currency prices. Because, first of all, this is based on the earliest New Liberty Standard’s pricing of bitcoin. In the small circle at the time, this was recognized. Secondly, as far as Bitcoin ’s popularity at the time was concerned, his posting on the Internet was already known to the entire market (there are many posts and posts, and several familiar early characters participated in the discussion). Recognized fair price.
Moving forward into 2009, the birth year of Bitcoin, the earliest transaction in history occurred on October 12. Finn Martti Malmi , the legend of the Satoshi team, Satoshi “the most trusted person”, Satoshi ’s first “colleague”, ashes team development member, transfers via PayPal to New Liberty for $ 5.02 Standard sold 5050 BTC. According to his own statement, this transaction is to help New Liberty Standard start the world’s earliest Bitcoin transaction service. And, this batch of bitcoin is a fresh flatbread just mined by Martti Malmi using the CPU.
Today, we can still see this transaction on the chain:
These 5,050 flatbreads should be the first time humans bought bitcoin in fiat currency , which became an important historical event. This is the earliest recorded bitcoin transaction price, at this time the currency price is 0.0009940 USD . Based on this calculation, to the highest price of 19,666 US dollars, it has increased by 19 million times.
The earliest price model in bitcoin history should be the pricing of electricity bills released by New Liberty Standard . New Liberty Standard should have been eager to be a Bitcoin trading broker at that time, and released the daily bitcoin price based on the electricity cost of mining at that time. We can see that on October 5, 2009, the earliest price was 1 USD / 1309.03 BTC = 0.000764 USD .
This is the earliest price model in Bitcoin history . Because early mining is very easy and computer computing power is not a problem, it is OK to just calculate electricity bills. This is a valuation of Bitcoin based on the cost of mining electricity. Of course, it is not accurate to calculate the electricity bill in the United States, but it does not matter. We will use the price at that time as a reference. This valuation method, the price series from October 5, 2009 to the end of the year, was also quoted into the price model by later analysts.
The above are the six main nodes in the prehistoric price of Bitcoin. They are of great significance and very precious in the analysis of the early evolution of Bitcoin price.
I put these 6 price nodes on the graph and compared them with the electricity price of New Liberty Standard, and found that they are very close. This also confirms that the electricity price model is widely accepted, even though Bitcoin had little knowledge at the time. Therefore, many later price models have a reasonable basis for filling this “prehistoric price” with the electricity price model.
All price trends
In this way, we get all the bitcoin prices in history. By connecting the prehistoric price with the later exchange price, you can get the complete historical price trend of Bitcoin:
to sum up
1. The general investors look at the market, and the prices of BTC / USDT in Huobi, Binance, and OKex are sufficient. The price records of the last three or two years are all;
2. For those who need to analyze long-term trends, the most convenient way is to look at Bitstamp’s BTC / USD on AICoin. Since 2011, it is easy to draw lines and add technical indicators, similar to the straight flush of stocks;
3. Domestic classical financial market analysts can enter the code BTCUSDBS in Wind information, which is also quoted from Bitstamp;
4. Professional market analysts, you can look at data websites such as bitcoinvisuals, coinmetrics, etc. You can use data platforms such as Bloomberg and Wind to use data from Mt.Gox since July 17, 2010. After all, this is recognized as open market transaction data ;
5. Archaeologists with hard-core bitcoiner and currency price model analysts can collect and produce data by themselves. The data points before July 2010 can be selected and compiled according to their own data mastery and personal preference.
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