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Gary VaynerchukHe is an Internet celebrity who bleeds for entrepreneurship and business.
I had the pleasure of meeting him recently.
When you talk to him, he looks at you and listens intently. You almost feel like you are the only focus of the room full of people.
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Despite his fame, he certainly stayed true to his humble origins.
Nicknamed “Garyvee,” he was an immigrant from Belarus who had the unique opportunity to come to America due to an extraordinary event in 1970.
A group of Soviet Jews attempted to hijack a civilian plane to flee the country and immigrate to Israel. Three men and one woman boarded a domestic flight. Once the plane was in the air, they drew their weapons and demanded that the plane be flown to Sweden, which is known for its sympathy for refugees.
Russian police arrested the hijackers.
Still, the incident rallied around the world to the idea that Jews should be allowed to leave Russia, putting intense international pressure on the Russian government to make immigration easier.
It led to changes in immigration law that allowed the Vaynerchucks to come to the United States.
A stroke of luck.
Today, Garyvee is a wealthy entrepreneur and serial investor with an annoyingly high success rate and a keen eye for the future.
It was as if he could see around corners.
His first three investments wereFacebook, Twitter, and Tumblr.
While it’s clear to us now that these companies have become giants, he had the foresight to make major investments at a time when others were skeptical about how social media companies could generate profits.
When he delivered his thoughts on a fledgling industry, people sat down and listened because he understood human behavior to a degree rarely seen in anyone else.
Garyvee is often asked about Bitcoin and blockchain technology. Given the trustless nature of peer-to-peer transactions, his first response was that blockchain technology could overthrow the United States, China, and Russia.
It can lead to civil strife among sovereign nations and possibly lead to a world war.
“You should ask yourself whether these countries will sit by and not act when this new technology destroys value in their economies,” he said.
Buckle up and let’s get started.
Bitcoin has no middle ground.
Citizens have embraced Bitcoin as a medium of value, Garyvee argues, and governments need to be more transparent about their intentions for cryptocurrencies.
Governments are unlikely to allow an asset class like Bitcoin to grow without taking action, such as imposing heavy taxes or curbing its growth through government measures. In other words, people are prohibited from having it.
Depending on what happens, Bitcoin could take off based on demand and a domino effect.
“Bitcoin has no middle ground; it’s so advanced that unless you have government involvement, its adoption will continue to increase.
If you have a lot of government regulations, if Russia and the US and Europe say — “citizens of our country, you can’t hold this” (Bitcoin).
You still have a ton of questions. Who knows what the result will be? For a long time there was no middle ground.
You still have the biggest potential price middle ground of the decade. Either prices will rise, or there will be unrest among citizens and sovereign states. “
It may be too late for the government.
Bitcoin holders are completely different.
Even amidst the turmoil caused by the collapse of key cryptocurrency exchanges and governments expressing displeasure with bitcoin, on-chain data shows bitcoin holders are playing the long game.
By the end of 2022, people who have held Bitcoin for six months or more will account for the total supply of Bitcoin71%.
According to Ark Invest, once people hold Bitcoin during this time, they are much less likely to sell it.
Almost half of all bitcoins in circulation have remained untouched over the past two years. This is interesting data that highlights the long-term behavior of Bitcoin investors.
Community belief is extraordinary.
Below, you can see a notable trend in the number of coins that have not moved for 155 days or more.
That threshold is critical, Ark Invest said, because it marks a point at which the likelihood of those bitcoins being spent in the future falls sharply.
The future of Bitcoin remains uncertain, and Gary is right. With uncertainty comes the possibility of civil unrest.
The future of Bitcoin is more nuanced than the simple dichotomy of skyrocketing adoption (it has) or sparking civil war between citizens and their government (it can).
Bitcoin’s future path will depend on regulations, market trends, and the attitude of elected officials. Honestly, this is changing.
As we grow and become more digitized, I hear less and less of a “Ponzi scheme”. So we’ll continue to accept that it makes more sense, not less.
While I can’t predict the future, likely outcomes are demand-based bitcoin price spikes, potentially high taxes, and restrictions on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges.
Heck, we could see an outright ban.
Then chaos ensues.