Bitcoin halving does not mean an end, but a new beginning

The half-minded bitcoin halving has finally arrived. At 03:23:43 GMT, the AntPool mining pool dug out 630,000 blocks, the block size was 1,186,930 B, the block revenue was 7.15968084 BTC, and the block reward has been halved from 12.5 to 6.25 . After the halving was completed, the market did not change much, and the fluctuations in the range were still the main ones.

But it is worth noting that this does not mean that the impact of halving has been completely eliminated, and the changes to the industry after the halving are the key . For example, after halving, what are the miners who are not very efficient?

We all know that after halving, no matter from what angle, the most impacted are the miners, each time the number of bitcoin blocks will be halved, which means that most of the old miners compete at all, but the computing power is higher The new generation of mining machine , so that the owner of the old mining machine will only have three ways to choose, and each choice needs to be considered carefully:

One is to directly increase the cost to purchase new mining machines to compete with other high-efficiency mining machines. However, if you do so, the overall efficiency and profit will be less than halved. After all, the block production at the same time has indeed been halved.

Second, due to the high cost of the new mining machine, the old mining machine was directly sold out of the mining machine circle.

The third is to change the track, abandon the original BTC market, and turn to dig other mainstream currencies, such as BCH, BSV, etc.

In this way, it will have a greater probability of affecting the currency price. If the miners must upgrade the new machine cost, then they need to sell bitcoins in exchange for cash, which will create a certain selling pressure on the market . The same is true for withdrawing from the mining machine circle. Miners are more familiar with the characteristics of Bitcoin. When they chose to mine instead of trading, it has been explained that compared to trading, they are more inclined to mining with less risk, so the probability of full-time trading after exiting the mining machine circle is also relatively small. This will also create some selling pressure on the market.

Article 3 will have an impact on other currencies, taking recent BCH and BSV as examples. The leverage ratios of BTC, ETH and other currencies have all come down, but the leverage of BCH and BSV is still very high , indicating that funds have not been dropped off.


In the case of low BTC and ETH leverage ratios, this phenomenon is not normal, either by halving the power of BTC to engage in the power war, attracting retail investors to get on the train, and the miner group transferring the power to them, ready to engage in things, or at any time In preparation for harvesting, the probability of harvesting was relatively high, but at this juncture, when the miners hesitated whether to continue to dig bitcoin, they threw an olive branch, which does not rule out the possibility of doing things.

On the whole, the halving effect of Bitcoin is not just a direct impact on the currency price. The most direct reason for the impact on the currency price is the investor’s sentiment . The impression of halving = rising is deeply ingrained in the investor ’s mind and thus affects investment. The emotions of the person will be affected, and finally reflected intuitively to the comparison.

The deeper or more substantial impact behind it is the survival of miners and the upcoming rectification of the mining industry , which then affects the industry step by step, to the mining machine sellers, and even to the chip industry and exchanges. Reflecting on the currency price, these two paths , the emotional impact is short-term, and the substantial impact is long-term , which is why the bull market after halving is often delayed for a long time, and the experience time is also very long. It shows that the substantive impact is greater, and the changes in the middle links will take time.

Even in the short term, the impact of the halving has not been completely eliminated. Perhaps it is realized that everyone is more vigilant before and after the halving, so the dealer has not chosen to start at this time, and may make unexpected actions after everyone removes the vigilance. In short, for us, at this time, it is always right to take a step slower than others.

Finally, a summary of halving : halving is not the end, but a new beginning.

Returning to the market, we see from the daily line that we are currently approaching the lower track of the upward channel, and the lower track is actually not far away from the 30-day moving average, which means that it is very likely that double-layer support will form next . Effective, the probability of continuing to go up the channel is also extremely high.


There is an assumption that the current price is still a bit far from the lower rail, that is, the 30-day moving average, and at the same time the daily MACD is also forming a high dead fork above the 0 axis, then it may remain oscillating until the K line reaches the channel lower rail and the 30th. Moving average, at the same time, the MACD’s dead fork energy is also consumed to reach near the 0 axis. Both indicators are facing the choice of direction at the same time. At that time , the probability of directly pulling up, or first pinning and then rising is greater than that of direct decline. Of course only A preliminary assumption, the specifics are still subject to the disk trend.


The hourly-level activity interval is more obvious. There are two more conspicuous ones. One is that it is still running in the interval and is in the middle of the interval. Secondly, the 60-day moving average of the hourly line fell twice, and there was still some pressure. If the continuation of the turbulence does not drop next, and gradually rise above the 60-day moving average, the direction of the next step will be a lot better.

MACD is also more concerned. A wave of shock has consumed the golden fork coming up below the 0 axis, and now it is near the 0 axis, but it has not stood on the 0 axis, indicating that even the hour line level is still enveloped by the energy of the bears. In combination with the effect of halving, in recent days, more or less has been done.

Risk Warning : Investing in cryptocurrencies is a high-risk investment behavior. The content of this article is for reference only, and does not constitute investment trading advice. Investors should invest rationally: investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.

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