Investment value, hedging value, speculative value, Bitcoin has only one last point: speculative value.
The Bitcoin incident is actually a social experiment. It is the most extreme utopian resistance experiment with inflation in the new era.
The decentralization of bitcoin, without a central bank, is actually an anarchist feature with a total limit of 21 million bitcoins. This is the most extreme resistance to inflation by governments over the world, and the entire system, It is a utopian design.
Inflation is regarded as a tiger by everyone. In fact, low and moderate inflation is the best mode. It is beneficial to activate the economy and increase the speed of economic development.
Of course, excessive inflation is definitely not profitable. For example, Venezuela’s inflation is as high as ten thousand times, corresponding to the complete collapse of the economy.
We used to have higher inflation in the past, such as the two years from 1988 to 1989 and the three years from 1993 to 1995, the highest of which was 24.1% in 1994. It looked scary, but it was solved later. problem.
On the contrary, in the two years of deflation, it was -0.8% in 1998 and -0.7% in 2009. It seems that the range is very small, but it is the year when everyone actually feels the most obvious economic downturn, a depression, of course 2009 Four trillion yuan later also played a very big role.
So it is normal for everyone not to like inflation, but in fact, deflation is more terrible than inflation, and it is more worthy of vigilance that deflation.
Because deflation and depression are good partners, if inflation makes everyone feel hot and uncomfortable, then deflation brings a lifeless cold, cold to the bones, this feeling is more terrible, the famous Great Depression period in the United States Is deflationary.
All in all, although inflation is not good, moderate small inflation is the best model of the economy, and at the same time, deflation is more terrible than inflation.
The total amount of Bitcoin set is 21 million. It has eliminated inflation from the system, and it seems to be very good, but this resistance to inflation is too extreme. That is absolute deflation.
Since we consider ourselves to be a currency, we can simply assume that if the world uses only bitcoin as a currency, after bitcoin reaches the total amount, there will be no new currency and no new money in the world.
Credit? Non-existent, deposit interest? Does not exist, loan? Basically does not exist?
Because no new currency appears.
The newly added wealth corresponds to the required currency, which does not exist. If so, what will happen?
It can only be that the price is getting lower and lower, the price is getting lower and lower, OK, people who think that the price is getting lower and lower are wrong, because the price of goods is getting lower and lower, which means that there are fewer and fewer goods.
Suppose an enterprise has a total production cost of 90, a total income of 100, and a profit of 10. In a normal era, it is a profitable business that can produce products normally. If the total cost is 90 and the total income is 95, not much is earned, but you can still earn some points.
However, when there is no new currency, the price will be lower and lower, the total cost is 90, and the total revenue of the product is expected to be 100 when it is produced, but after the production is completed, it is found that the price has dropped to 95 or 90, the profit has been reduced, or no Profits can only reduce the scale of production or even stop production.
If it is estimated to be 95, but after the production, it is found that the price has reached 90 or even 85, without making money or even losing money, it can only reduce the scale or even lose money to stop production.
This is just a simple model, but also a small aspect of deflation. The actual terrible degree of deflation is far more powerful than the above model.
During the economic crisis in Europe and the United States written in the book when I was a child, working people can’t afford to eat, and capitalists pour surplus milk into the river, which is also true in history.
Think about what happens if the whole world falls into deflation together?
The result is definitely deflation all over the world. The Great Depression is even greater than the Great Depression in the United States. If you do n’t know, you can go to the online card to learn about the era of the Great Depression.
The total amount of Bitcoin is permanently fixed, that is, absolute permanent deflation, that is to say, the world will always be in an era of even greater depression than the Great Depression of the United States.
War is the most advanced mode of confrontation. Now the frequency of war is much less than that of ancient times. That is because civilization has advanced. Everyone has more ways to rescue problems and more forms of expression to reflect confrontation. The form of expression can be called soft war.
For example, exchange rate wars, financial wars, trade wars, and economic wars are all manifestations of confrontation. Because there are so many new manifestations of confrontation, the frequency of hard wars has been reduced.
If the world enters the era of major deflation, then it will enter an era of absolute confrontation. All soft wars are not enough to resolve contradictions. What will happen then? Think about it.
Therefore, the bitcoin model reflects the resistance to inflation, but the result is that it has entered another extreme. It may be more reasonable if it is initially set to grow at a certain low value after a certain value, but unfortunately there is no if, so this model is destined to be a utopian experiment from the beginning.